The Morning Call
2/19/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bullion-black-gold-bid-bitcoin-big-tech-bonds-battered
The latest from
Goldman’s trading desk.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-dump-tech-and-consumer-stocks-buy-materials
Margin debt hits
record high.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications fell 6.6% while purchase applications were down 6.0%.
January housing
starts were down 9.8% versus expectations of -9.0%; preliminary building permits
were up 0.1% versus -0.8%.
The February housing index was reported at 42
versus consensus of 47.
International
December Japanese
machine tool orders declined 1.2% versus predictions of +0.1%; the January
trade balance was -Y2956 billion versus -Y2100 billion.
The January UK CPI
was -0.1% versus estimates of -0.3%; core CPI was -0.4% versus -0.5%.
Other
Wednesday in the economic charts.
https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-february-17th-2025/
Overnight
News
President Donald
Trump said he would likely impose tariffs on automobile, semiconductor and
pharmaceutical imports of around 25%, with an announcement coming as soon as
April 2 in a move that would represent a dramatic widening of the president’s
trade war.
Intelligence from
the United States and close allies shows that Russian President Vladimir Putin
still wants to control all of Ukraine. While Putin is sending representatives
to Saudi Arabia for negotiations with the US that are aimed at ending the war, officials
said that current intelligence shows Putin still believes he can wait out
Ukraine and Europe to eventually control all of Ukraine.
Recession
Perfect (?) recession indicator.
Fiscal
Policy
More untraceable federal expenditures.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/doge-finds-47-trillion-virtually-untraceable-treasury-payments
Tariffs
Steel tariffs in two charts.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/02/steel-tariffs-in-two-pictures.html
A one dimensional approach to balanced trade
does not support tariffs.
Tariff confusion syndrome.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/02/18/confusion-syndrome-trump
Investing
Retail exuberance sets the market up for a
correction.
Retail
Exuberance Sets Market Up For A Correction - RIA
Magnificent 7 lose
their shine.
https://www.ft.com/content/fa5d3b2d-b3b3-4bb4-a5a4-765b7560e02c
The road narrows
for the bull market.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/road-narrows-bull-market
Goldman raises
gold price forecast.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-raises-gold-price-forecast-central-bank-demand-soars
On the other hand.
Bitcoin buyer dynamics
are changing.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Making
good decisions.
https://www.twopct.com/p/do-something-60e
33 ways to improve your life
Japanese style.
https://www.mrporter.com/en-us/journal/lifestyle/life-lessons-people-tokyo-japan-style-food-24538500
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