Wednesday, February 19, 2025

The Morning Call--Retail exuberance sets Market up for a correction

 

The Morning Call

 

2/19/25

 

The Market

 

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bullion-black-gold-bid-bitcoin-big-tech-bonds-battered

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-dump-tech-and-consumer-stocks-buy-materials

 

            Margin debt hits record high.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/18/margin-debt-hits-record-high-with-4-2-jump-in-january

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 6.6% while purchase applications were down 6.0%.

 

January housing starts were down 9.8% versus expectations of -9.0%; preliminary building permits were up 0.1% versus -0.8%.

 

                          The February housing index was reported at 42 versus consensus of 47.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/18/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-february-2025

 

                        International

 

December Japanese machine tool orders declined 1.2% versus predictions of +0.1%; the January trade balance was -Y2956 billion versus -Y2100 billion.

 

The January UK CPI was -0.1% versus estimates of -0.3%; core CPI was -0.4% versus -0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Wednesday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-february-17th-2025/

 

            Overnight News

 

President Donald Trump said he would likely impose tariffs on automobile, semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports of around 25%, with an announcement coming as soon as April 2 in a move that would represent a dramatic widening of the president’s trade war.

 

Intelligence from the United States and close allies shows that Russian President Vladimir Putin still wants to control all of Ukraine. While Putin is sending representatives to Saudi Arabia for negotiations with the US that are aimed at ending the war, officials said that current intelligence shows Putin still believes he can wait out Ukraine and Europe to eventually control all of Ukraine.

 

            Recession

 

              Perfect (?) recession indicator.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/02/anthony-diercks-daniel-soques-and-jing-cynthia-wu-perfect-recession-indicators

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              More untraceable federal expenditures.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/doge-finds-47-trillion-virtually-untraceable-treasury-payments

 

            Tariffs

 

              Steel tariffs in two charts.

              https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/02/steel-tariffs-in-two-pictures.html

 

              A one dimensional approach to balanced trade does not support tariffs.

              https://www.cato.org/blog/one-dimensional-focus-balanced-trade-does-not-support-case-more-tariffs-response-robert

 

              Tariff confusion syndrome.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/02/18/confusion-syndrome-trump

 

     Investing

 

            Retail exuberance sets the market up for a correction.

            Retail Exuberance Sets Market Up For A Correction - RIA

 

            Magnificent 7 lose their shine.

            https://www.ft.com/content/fa5d3b2d-b3b3-4bb4-a5a4-765b7560e02c

 

            The road narrows for the bull market.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/road-narrows-bull-market

 

            Goldman raises gold price forecast.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-raises-gold-price-forecast-central-bank-demand-soars

 

            On the other hand.

            Buying What Glitters

 

            Bitcoin buyer dynamics are changing.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-buyer-dynamics-are-changing-stanchart-outlines-pathway-500000

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Making good decisions.

            https://www.twopct.com/p/do-something-60e

 

            33 ways to improve your life Japanese style.

            https://www.mrporter.com/en-us/journal/lifestyle/life-lessons-people-tokyo-japan-style-food-24538500

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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