Thursday, February 6, 2025

The Morning Call---Retail mania

 

The Morning Call

 

2/6/25

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-hits-new-record-high-shortage-worsens-dealers-stuffed-gamma-sparks-another-stock

 

            Retail mania.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/retail-mania-actually-bigger-height-00-bubble

 

            The latest from Goldman’s traders.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/heres-what-goldmans-top-traders-think-about-market

 

            Three gold charts worth watching.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-gold-charts-we-are-watching-4

 

            Three more charts worth watching.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-rate-charts-we-are-watching-1

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 219,000 versus consensus of 212,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/initial-jobless-claims-tick-higher-multi-decade-lows

 

Q4 preliminary nonfarm productivity rose 1.2% versus projections of 1.4%; unit labor costs were up 3.0% versus 3.4%.

 

The January services PMI was 52.9 versus forecasts of 52.8; the January composite PMI was 52.7 versus 52.4.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/05/sp-global-services-pmi-january-2025

 

The January ISM nonmanufacturing index was 52.8 versus estimates of 54.3.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/05/ism-services-pmi-expanded-january-2025

 

                        International

 

December German factory orders were up 6.9% versus expectations of +2.0%.

 

December EU retail sales fell 0.2% versus forecasts of -0.1%.

 

The January EU construction PMI was 45.4 versus predictions of 43.0; the January German construction PMI was 42.5 versus 38.0; the January UK construction PMI was 48.1 versus 53.4.

 

                        Other

 

                          EU imposes ESG agenda on US companies.

                          https://www.civitasinstitute.org/research/the-eu-imposes-its-esg-agenda-on-american-companies

 

                          The job market retightens.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/02/04/underlying-job-market-dynamics-retighten-as-fed-moves-any-rate-cuts-into-distance-amid-accelerating-inflation/

 

                          ISM indices predicting further growth.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/02/economically-weighted-ism-services.html

 

Despite the upbeat ADP private payrolls report, small businesses are not keeping up.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/adp-payrolls-better-than-expected-but-two-thirds-of-the-economy-has-stalled/

           

            Overnight News

 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business that the Trump administration wants to make the 2017 tax cut permanent and added that Trump wants lower interest rates and is focused on the 10-year treasury yield. Furthermore, he said Trump is not calling for the Fed to lower interest rates and interest rates will take care of themselves if they get energy costs down and deregulate economy. He gave no indication he was in favor of direct intervention.

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The argument against a sovereign wealth fund.

              https://www.axios.com/2025/02/04/trump-american-sovereign-wealth-fund

 

              Wards of the government.

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/democratic-states-are-wards-of-washington-federal-spending-dollars-states-cities-92ace121

 

Rather than crying wolf, let’s wait and see. The markets certainly don’t seem all that concerned.

             https://www.capitalspectator.com/treasury-yields-edge-lower-despite-threat-of-trade-war/

 

Downsizing the CIA (I wonder if that means another assassination) and eliminating   USAID.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/scattered-winds-entire-cia-gets-trump-buyout-offer-usaid-employees-placed-leave-worldwide

 

              40,000 except DOGE buyout.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/least-40000-fed-workers-accept-doge-buyout-deadline-looms-tonight

 

     Investing

 

            January dividends by the numbers.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/02/dividends-by-numbers-in-january-2025.html

 

            Crypto currencies fall following tariff threats.

            https://www.ft.com/content/f3c1dc34-1ac4-4a79-8415-4747d27a634c

 

            Deregulating the crypto market.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/crypto-regulatory-pivot-accelerates-fdic-releases-790-pages-letters-sec-dials-down-oversight

 

            Goldman on DOGE’s impact on the defense and IT services industries.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-doge-sparks-cautious-view-govt-it-services-and-defense-stocks

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Qualcomm press release (NASDAQ:QCOM): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.41 beats by $0.44.

Revenue of $11.67B (+17.6% Y/Y) beats by $770M.

 

UPS (NYSE:UPS) declares $1.64/share quarterly dividend, 0.6% increase from prior dividend of $1.63.

 

What I am reading today

 

            America’s traffic control system is a disgrace.

            https://www.city-journal.org/article/reagan-national-airport-crash-faa-air-traffic-control

 

            Americans are the most scammed people in the world.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/americans-are-most-scammed-people-world

 

            Inside the decadent love affair of Cleopatra and Mark Antony.

            Cleopatra and Mark Antony's Decadent Love Affair

 

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