The Morning Call--Treasury market getting anxious about inflation

 

The Morning Call

 

2/13/25

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/surging-cpi-slams-stocks-bonds-rate-cut-hopes-evaporate-bitcoin-bounces-back

 

            More charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/rates-rising-inflation-inflating-king-kweb-reigns

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 213,000 versus predictions of 215,000.

                       

The January budget deficit was $129 billion versus estimates of $88.0 billion.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-budget-deficit-hits-record-840-billion-first-4-months-2025-interest-debt-hits-record-12

 

January PPI was reported at +0.4% versus expectations of +0.3%; core PPI was up 0.3%, in line.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/producer-prices-surge-fastest-pace-2-years-energy-deflation-ends

 

                        International

 

Q4 UK GDP grew 0.1% versus consensus of -0.1%; Q4 business investment was down 3.2% versus +1.1%; December industrial production was up 0.5% versus +0.2%.

 

December EU industrial production fell 1.1% versus projections of -0.6%.

 

January Japanese PPI was up 0.3%, in line.

 

January German CPI was fell 0.2%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          A closer look at the recent small business optimism index reading.

                          https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/small-business-sentiment-wild-ride

 

                          A breakdown of yesterday’s CPI number.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/02/january-cpi-new-paradigm-with.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Ruminations on the ‘neutral’ rate of interest.

              Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

 

            Inflation

 

              Year ahead inflation expectations.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/02/year-ahead-cpi-inflation-expectations-in-january-3-3-4

 

              The Treasury market is getting anxious about inflation.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/02/11/treasury-markets-inflation-expectations-have-become-unanchored-since-the-rate-cuts/

 

              Rate cuts on ice.

              Fed Rate Cuts On Ice As Inflation Heats Up

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump to introduce reciprocal tariffs shortly.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-unveil-reciprocal-tariffs-hours-heres-what-they-will-look-and-who-will-be-biggest

 

              Deglobalization: decoupling versus diversification.

              https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/deglobalisation-diversification-rather

 

              Steel and aluminum tariffs are bad policy.

              https://reason.com/2025/02/11/trumps-tariffs-on-steel-and-aluminum-are-bad-news-for-american-energy/

   

            China

 

              China’s property crisis enters dangerous new phase.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-02-11/china-s-real-estate-crisis-property-sector-debt-is-getting-worse?srnd=homepage-americas

 

              How China’s growth headwinds shape its response to tariffs.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-02-12/how-china-s-growth-headwinds-shape-its-response-to-trump?srnd=homepage-americas

 

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Putin invites Trump to Moscow.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-has-lengthy-highly-productive-call-putin-immediately-end-war

 

     Investing

 

            Narrow markets are the exception.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/02/12/narrow-markets-exception-not-rule

 

            Desperately seeking yield.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/desperately-seeking-yield-12-february-2025/

 

            Q4 S&P earnings dashboard; plus a look at 2025.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/these-5-charts-explain-the-current-earnings-outlook?post=481260

 

            ‘Trump trades’ start to misfire as dollar weakens.

              https://www.ft.com/content/d79cffed-d68f-4f4a-9a8c-31dcd60d5a5b

 

            Money flows should provide continuing support for the Market.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/02/simple-explanations-to-complex-topics/

 

            BofA on gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-heads-3000-bofa-digs-intensifying-market-dislocations

 

            Goldman flows guru warns.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bearish-trade-developing-goldman-flows-guru-warns-equity-demand-slowing

 

            Equities in strong demand but fading soon.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/equities-strong-demand-fading-soon

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Cisco Systems press release (NASDAQ:CSCO): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.94 beats by $0.03.

Revenue of $13.99B (+9.4% Y/Y) beats by $120M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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