The Morning Call
2/5/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Market in review.
Panic buying in
gold.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-panic-buying
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications were up 2.2% while purchase applications were down 4.0%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior week.
December jobs openings
(JOLTS report) totaled 7.6 million versus estimates of 8.0 million.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/02/jolts-report-for-december-shows-mild.html
December factory
orders fell 0.9% versus expectations of -0.7%; ex transportation, they were up
0.3% versus +0.6%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-factory-orders-declined-overall-2025
The December trade
balance was -$98.4 billion versus forecasts of -$96.6 billion.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-trade-deficit-soars-firms-front-ran-trump-tariffs-december
The January ADP
private payrolls report showed job increases off 183,000 versus consensus of
150,000.
International
December EU PPI came in at +0.4%, in line.
The January
Japanese services PMI was 53.0 versus predictions of 52.7; the composite PMI
was 51.1, in line; the January Chinese Caixin services PMI was 51.0 versus 52.3;
the composite PMI was 51.1 versus 50.1; the January German services PMI was 52.5,
in line; the composite PMI was 50.5 versus 50.1; the January EU services PMI
was 51.3 versus 51.4; the composite PMI was 50.2, in line; the January UK services
PMI was 50.5 versus 51.2; the composite PMI was 50.6 versus 50.9.
Other
December median household income.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/02/median-household-income-in-december-2024.html
January YoY heavy truck sales up.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/02/heavy-truck-sales-increased-5-yoy-in.html
Overnight
News
Trump’s plans for
the US to take over Gaza have been met with anger and dismay across the Arab
world, raising fears of reignited conflict in the region. Saudi Arabia and
Turkey on Wednesday dismissed a proposal by President Trump for the US to take
control of Gaza and for Palestinians to permanently leave the strip, an idea
likely to be also rejected by other Middle Eastern nations.
US President Trump
mulls revoking loans from the $400bln clean energy office.
US government
officials have privately warned that Elon Musk’s blitz appears illegal. It was
separately reported that the US Treasury gave Elon Musk's DOGE 'read-only'
access to the payment system.
Monetary
Policy
Apparently the Fed and Trump have a deal.
Fiscal Policy
20,000 take government buyout offer (so far).
Tariffs
Tariffs: the good, the bad and the ugly.
https://disciplinefunds.com/2025/02/03/lets-talk-about-tariffs/
Here is some more bad and ugly.
Investing
Hedge funds are getting shorter stocks.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-are-getting-shorter-us-stocks
Update on
valuation.
A word of caution.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-i-dont-know-2/?src=news
Growth stocks
beyond the technology sector.
Q4 S&P earnings
dashboard.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-24q4-tuesday-feb-4?post=480709
Bond vigilantes
remain in hibernation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tariff-tensions-rise-bond-vigilantes-remain-hibernation-now
Stay long gold,
just not as a hedge.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/02/04/stay-long-gold-just-not-hedge
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
T. Rowe
Price press
release (NASDAQ:TROW): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.12 misses
by $0.08.
Revenue of
$1.82B (+11.0% Y/Y) misses by $50M.
What
I am reading today
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