Investing for Survival

 

The Morning Call

 

2/26/25

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/midst-negative-feedback-loop-bonds-bid-retail-rout-wrecks-everything-else

 

            How much more downside?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-inning-are-we-goldman-sees-more-pain-come-momo-unwind

 

            Nearing a short term low.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/a-low-in-the-market-is-near?post=483934

           

            So far in 2025, Fridays are the new Mondays.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2025-fridays-are-new-mondays

 

            Gold at overbought level, but…..

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-prices-surge-to-new-highs-despite-overbought?post=484053

 

            And silver sentiment soars.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/bitcoin-fades-gold-sees-huge-etf-inflows-silver-sentiment-soars

 

            Bitcoin is retesting important level.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/bitcoin-once-again-arrives-at-this-bear-bull-boundary-will-a-break-happen?post=484102

 

            How correlated is crypto to the Market?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/worried-about-crypto-and-its-connection-markets

           

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 1.2% while purchase applications were flat.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

The December Case Shiller home price index fell 0.1% versus consensus of 0.0%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/25/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-home-price-index-december-2024

 

                                                   More details.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/02/unwelcome-news-for-homebuyers-and-cpi.html

 

The February Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at 6 versus projections of -3.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/25/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-improved-february-2025

 

February consumer confidence was reported at 98.3 versus estimates of 102.5.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/25/consumer-confidence-dropped-sharply-february-2025

 

                        International

 

The December Japanese leading economic indicators were 108.3 versus predictions of 108.9.

 

The March German consumer confidence index was -24.7 versus forecasts of -21.4.

 

                        Other

 

                          Tuesday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-february-24th-2025/

 

                          Ten charts on consumer confidence and jobs.

                          In 10 Charts: Consumer Confidence & Jobs

 

                          One week does not a trend make.

                          https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-tune-out-the-noise/?src=news

 

                          Update on economic policy uncertainty.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/02/epu-today-655

 

            Overnight News

 

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday instructing the Department of Commerce to investigate whether to impose tariffs on copper and derivative products, key industrial materials, in order to protect national security. This sets the stage for more trade friction with Canada and Mexico, as well as Chile and Peru.

 

Ukraine and Washington have struck a minerals rights deal, and Zelensky is expected to travel to Washington later in the week for a signing ceremony w/Trump.

 

House Republicans approved a budget framework for President Donald Trump’s sweeping domestic policy agenda Tuesday — a major victory for Speaker Mike Johnson who worked with Trump and fellow leaders in a chaotic last-ditch effort to win over naysayers within the GOP ranks.

 

US President Trump said will begin a program to sell 'Trump gold cards' for USD 5mln for foreigners who want to come to the US and create jobs with the sale of gold cards to start in about two weeks.

 

The US House Ways and Means Committee has reportedly had discussions about options like ratcheting up taxes on public companies’ stock buybacks or adjusting limits on deducting executive pay, according to sources cited by Punchbowl. "Proposals such as raising endowment taxes on universities and significant cuts to clean energy tax credits are being viewed as even more likely".

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Interpreting Trump policies is not easy for the Fed.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/politics-and-policy-clouds-path-ahead-for-fed/

 

              The ECB is sounding like our Fed (i.e., one the one hand, on the other hand).

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-can-keep-cutting-rates-as-inflation-approaches-target-bundesbanks-nagel-says-359fe7c5?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

              Bank of Korea cuts rates.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-korea-cuts-rate-lowers-growth-forecast-4b846621?mod=economy_lead_pos4

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Could Trump policies break the dollar/stock market?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/could-mar-lago-accord-break-stocks-market

 

            The Financial System

 

              The number of troubled banks decreased in Q4.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/02/fdic-number-of-problem-banks-decreased.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              Tariffs won’t bring a golden age to America.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/02/25/tariffs_wont_create_the_golden_age_of_america_1093222.html

 

                Geopolitics

 

              Ukraine agrees to mineral deal with US.

              https://www.ft.com/content/1890d104-1395-4393-a71d-d299aed448e6

 

                  A new detente?

             https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-us-diplomatic-choreography-un-shows-their-commitment-new-detente

               

 

      Investing

 

            No one likes uncertainty.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nobody-likes-uncertainty-least-all-stock-market

 

            The pace of disruption.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/it-sneaks-up-on-you...-then-explodes/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP743&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            Changes in corporate governance.

            https://www.ft.com/content/85eccee4-3890-4c25-bd89-eb522b95efb9

 

            The best and worst years of the S&P 500.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/02/the-best-and-worst-years-of-s-500.html

 

            Best trading practices.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/02/what-are-your-best-trading-practices.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2025/02/quotation-of-the-day-4931.html

           

                        The rich getting richer.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/02/the-top-10/

 

            Kyle Bass on Chinese ownership of US land.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kyle-bass-sounds-alarm-over-chinas-insane-battlefield-asymmetries-us-land-ownership

 

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