The Morning Call--Inflation is heating up again

 

The Morning Call

 

2/28/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/oil-dollar-spike-momo-meltdown-aint-over-yet

 

            More.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/oil-dollar-spike-momo-meltdown-aint-over-yet

 

            Fear running high.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/fear-running-high-0

 

            Tech carnage.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/tech-carnage-make-or-break

 

            Current Elliott Wave analysis.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/elliott-wave-analysis-sp-500-in-flat-or-triangle-keep-an-eye-on-5880-and-5784-supports?post=484287

 

            Bitcoin bloodbath.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bitcoin-bloodbath-200-day-support-shattered

 

    Fundamental

 

            The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          January pending home sales dropped 4.6% versus consensus of -1.3%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/27/pending-home-sales-sink-all-time-low-january-2025

 

January personal income was up 0.9% versus projections of +0.3%; January personal spending declined 0.2% versus +0.1%.

 

                          The January PCE price index was +0.3%, in line.

 

The February Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was -13 versus expectations of -3.

 

                        International

 

January Japanese (preliminary) industrial production was down 1.1% versus predictions of -1.0%; January (preliminary) retail sales were up 0.5% versus +0.3%; January YoY housing starts fell 4.6% versus -2.6%; January YoY construction orders were up 12.2% versus -2.6%.

 

January German retail sales rose 0.2% versus estimates of 0.0%; the February unemployment rate was 6.2%, in line; February CPI was +0.4%, also in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          New home sales and prices continue to fall.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/02/us-new-home-market-continues-shrinking.html

 

                          Demand for electricity takes off.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/02/27/demand-for-electricity-takes-off-us-power-generation-by-source-in-2024-natural-gas-coal-nuclear-wind-hydro-solar-geothermal-biomass-petroleum/

 

                         Thursday in the economic charts.

                         https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-february-26th-2025/

 

How long can sentiment stay bad and the economic numbers stay good?

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/sentiment-bad-hard-data-good-how-long-can-it-continue/

 

            Overnight News

 

Trump has said he is working on a trade deal with the UK and suggested Britain could escape tariffs if the country secured one, but the allies failed to agree on US security guarantees for Ukraine.

 

Trump said on Truth that they are working very hard with the House and Senate to pass a clean, temporary government funding bill. 

 

The Treasury’s cash balance plummeted to $569 billion, the lowest since September 2023, as it navigates the debt-ceiling impasse by reducing bill auctions. Meanwhile, overnight repo rates climbed.

 

Mexico will extradite drug criminals to the US in a bid to avoid Trump’s tariffs.

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Waste of the day.

              https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2025/02/25/waste_of_the_day_inflation_reduction_act_is_over_budget_and_underperforming_1093695.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation is heating up again.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-27/what-to-know-about-rising-us-inflation-and-your-consumer-prices?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                           Inflation adjusted housing prices.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/02/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-10.html

 

            Recession

 

              Homebuilders have the most speculative unsold inventory since 2008.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/homebuilders-have-most-speculative-unsold-inventory-since-may-of-2008?post=484505

 

              Is the unemployment rate about to rise?

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/02/the-end-of-steady-as-she-goes-in.html

 

The above analyst thinks DOGE is starting to impact the number; this analyst doesn’t.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/initial-unemployment-claims-spike-by-22000-not-doge-related/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump tariffs spur major reaction in Canada.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-27/canadian-shoppers-ditch-american-products-as-tariff-threat-looms?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Geopolitics

 

              Confusion reigns supreme.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-impossible-summarize-everything-happening

 

    Investing

 

            Ministagflation will end with a shock.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/mini-stagflation-will-end-financial-shock

 

            Growth scare and tariffs.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/growth-scare-tariffs-troubling-narrative-continues-brewing

 

            Update on Q4 S&P earnings.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-24q4-thursday-feb-27?post=484504

 

            The bitcoin slump steepens.

            https://www.ft.com/content/c5a58f35-1c10-4a2f-90f0-65e8b27427ce

 

            Thoughts from Josh Brown.

            https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/give-it-a-minute

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

EOG Resources press release (NYSE:EOG): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.74 beats by $0.17

Revenue of $5.59B (-12.1% Y/Y) misses by $360M.

 

 

EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) declares $0.975/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Altria (NYSE:MO) declares $1.02/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.