The Morning Call---Rising stock fragility

 

The Morning Call

 

2/14/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/tamed-pce-talks-peace-tariff-pausing-prompt-bid-stocks-bonds-gold

 

            Key resistance level in bitcoin.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/bitcoin-unable-to-break-upward-as-16-million-btc-resistance-wall-blocks-path?post=482142

 

            Daily economic charts.

            https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-february-12th-2025/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

January retail sales fell 0.9% versus predictions of -0.1%; ex autos, they were down 0.4% versus +0.3%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/january-us-retail-sales-tumble-most-almost-2-years

 

                        International

 

Q4 EU (2^nd estimate) GDP growth was up 0.1% versus estimates of 0.0%; Q4 (preliminary) employment change was +0.1%, in line.

 

January German PPI was up 0.9% versus expectations of +0.1%.

 

                        Other

 

Q4 NY Fed report on mortgage originations, delinquencies and foreclosures.

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/q4-ny-fed-report-mortgage-originations

 

                          Analysis of yesterday’s jobless claims number.

                              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/02/jobless-claims-more-of-steady-as-she.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              House republicans agree to $1.5 trillion in budget cuts.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/house-republicans-strike-deal-cut-15-trillion-budget-paving-way-trumps-legislative-agenda

 

            Inflation

 

              More analysis of Wednesday’s CPI number.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/02/12/beneath-the-skin-of-cpi-inflation-worst-month-to-month-acceleration-of-cpi-since-aug-2023-on-spikes-in-used-vehicles-non-housing-services-food-energy/

 

 

              More benign PPI eases inflation fears.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-13/us-bonds-rise-after-hot-inflation-fuels-worst-day-since-december?srnd=homepage-americas

 

            Tariffs

 

              A new course is needed for the steel industry.

  https://www.civitasinstitute.org/research/a-new-course-is-needed-for-the-steel-industry

 

              The power of trade.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/02/13/why-united-states-uses-tariffs-negotiation-tool-power-trade

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Realpolitik is the real story.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/red-hot-inflation-and-ice-cold-realpolitik

 

              Trump’s Greenland gambit.

              https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2025/02/12/trumps_greenland_gambit_is_a_masterclass_in_statecraft_1090828.html

 

              Initial thoughts on US/Russia talks on Ukraine.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/02/initial-thoughts-on-us-russia-talks-on-ukraine-war-as-ukraine-and-eu-have-nervous-breakdowns.html

           

     Investing

 

            From Goldman’s head of hedge fund trading.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-head-hedge-fund-coverage-stay-long-tail-protection

 

            More from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sell-rips-be-ready-dips-goldman-traders-observations-6-weeks-2025

 

            Rising stock fragility.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/record-megacap-fragility-puts-sp-rally-risk

 

            Investors rushing for protection against volatility spikes.

            https://www.ft.com/content/2f4b4acb-29be-4747-97f4-a831cef94d7e

 

            The AI spending frenzy.

            https://www.ft.com/content/573cb3d1-219a-4ff4-9d67-524914e0e323

 

            Public markets becoming less liquid and less transparent.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/public-markets-becoming-less-liquid-and-less-transparent/

 

            Goldman boosts Ethereum holdings.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/goldman-sachs-boosts-ethereum-etf-holdings-2000-bitcoin-etfs-15-billion

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) declared $1.64/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Nike (NYSE:NKE) declared $0.40/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        The courts versus the president.

            https://townhall.com/columnists/anncoulter/2025/02/12/columnistsanncoulter20250212if-it-please-the-court-who-the-hell-asked-you-n2652136

 

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