The Morning Call---Will the Fed just move the inflation goalpost?

 

The Morning Call

 

2/16/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-crypto-soar-despite-hawkish-fed-expectations-accelerating

 

            Why the Market is an untradeable mess.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-why-us-equities-are-untradeable-mess-right-now

 

            Hedge fund bear unleashes shorting frenzy.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/biggest-hedge-fund-bear-unleashes-epic-shorting-frenzy-buys-millions-puts-dozens-meme-and

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 169,000, in line.

 

January PPI rose 0.7% versus estimates of +0.4%; core PPI was up 0.5% versus +0.3%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/producer-prices-surge-more-expected-january-gas-prices-rebound

 

January housing starts fell 0.4% versus consensus of +0.1%; building permits were down 0.1%, in line.

 

January industrial production was flat versus expectations of +0.5%; capacity utilization was 78.3% versus 79.0%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/02/15/the-big-four-industrial-production-virtually-unchanged-in-january

 

The February housing index was 42 versus projections of 37.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/02/15/nahb-housing-market-index-cautious-optimism-for-builders-in-february

 

 

The February Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at -24.3 versus forecasts of -7.4.

 

                        International

 

December Japanese machine orders were up 1.6% versus predictions of up 3.0%; the January trade balance was Y-3496.6 billion versus T-3871.5 billion.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              From the Fed whisperer---inflation data keeps Fed on track for further rate hikes.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-report-keeps-fed-on-track-to-continue-rate-increases-db104ca0?mod=economy_lead_pos1&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=246083939&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8GtSkIGDy8keZWV2PzeHBX11xCH9DUUmzbC12Ibn4GAYp_ZC61N9AhdNuaHfQJzE4kGTg4r8Z-dlxS9EF2lKEyf873Lg&utm_content=246083939&utm_source=hs_email

 

            Inflation

 

              Deep in the weeds of CPI math.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/02/annual-services-inflation-rages-at-new-four-decade-high-monthly-overall-cpi-hottest-since-june.html

 

              El Erian/Rogoff predict that the Fed will move the inflation goalpost.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-14/el-erian-rogoff-say-too-late-to-fix-too-low-inflation-target?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

     Bottom line

 

            Earnings recession looms.

            https://www.ibtimes.com/us-companies-face-more-pain-expected-earnings-recession-looms-3667388

 

            Paulson says buy gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/billionaire-john-paulson-you-need-gold-not-dollars

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW) declares $0.605/share quarterly dividend, 0.8% increase from prior dividend of $0.600.

 

Cisco press release (NASDAQ:CSCO): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.88 beats by $0.02.

Revenue of $13.6B (+7.1% Y/Y) beats by $190M.

 

Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) declares $0.39/share quarterly dividend, 2.6% increase from prior dividend of $0.38.

 

What I am reading today

 

This is an interesting Point/Counterpoint on global warming.  Notice the absence of any data in the pro-global warming essays:

 

The world is coming to an end.

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3858237-wake-up-america-your-economic-citadel-is-driving-you-to-oblivion/

 

This article is even more apocalyptic.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/02/an-inconvenient-apocalypse.html

 

Uhh, I don’t think so.

https://issuesinsights.com/2023/02/14/the-climate-scare-narrative-continues-to-collapse/

 

And.

https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/where-climate-crisis-activists-keep-talking-about

 

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