The Morning Call---Little consensus among economists

 

The Morning Call

 

2/28/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-rally-despite-rising-rate-hike-odds-inflation-expectations

 

Note: the S&P tried to close back above the lower boundary of its very short-term uptrend but failed, thus, voiding that trend.  It remains above its 200 DMA which is now the focal point of support.  Let’s see if it can hold.

 

            Charts to watch.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/charts-we-are-watching-approaching-must-hold-levels

 

            The near-term importance of the 200 DMA.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/200-day-moving-average

 

            Investors are bracing for an increase in Market volatility.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-are-bracing-for-spike-in-market-volatility-fb94e890?mod=markets_lead_pos1&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=247816669&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9eSK7q8cg-sCRV8NeGbFfSk8CnsC3z3et9i-MZynEIdaYZlAQBSvYqQSH38zR-pBkgA1oSdXHl83WYA4khJpGIWa_x3Q&utm_content=247816669&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

Two-year Treasury yield makes a new high.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-27-february-2023/#more-19737

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          January pending home sales were up 8.1% versus expectations of +1.0%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-pending-home-sales-explode-higher-january

 

The February Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at -13.5 versus estimates of -2.0.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/stupid-slow-dallas-fed-manufacturing-production-plunges-contraction

 

                        International

 

January Japanese industrial production fell 4.6% versus predictions of -2.6%; January retail sales were up 1.9% versus +0.3%; January YoY housing starts were up 6.6% versus +1.0%; January YoY construction orders were down 14.0% versus -2.2%.

 

                        Other

 

            Inflation

 

              This analyst argues that disinflation in now the trend.

              https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2023/02/this-1-chart-proves-why-disinflation-remains-the-trend/

 

Scott Grannis doesn’t go quite that far; but he is still optimistic about lower inflation.

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/02/inflation-fears-are-overblown.html

 

                Recession

 

              But so far, no recession, at least where the consumer is concerned.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/02/people-got-used-to-higher-prices-and-are-outspending-even-raging-inflation-they-dont-want-this-thing-to-land.html

 

                  However, the math argues against a continuing strong consumer.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/02/27/no-landing-scenario-at-odds-with-feds-goals

 

                  Little consensus among economists.

              https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/27/economy/nabe-economic-outlook-february/index.html

 

                  Sub prime used car auto lender goes belly up.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/subprime-auto-lender-and-used-car-retailer-collapses-distress-cycle-finally-arrives

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Bank of Nova Scotia press release (NYSE:BNS): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of C$1.85 misses by C$0.17.

Revenue of C$7.98B (-0.9% Y/Y) misses by C$280M

 

Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS) declares CAD 1.03/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Fascinating research focuses on the origins of life.

            https://legalinsurrection.com/2023/02/fascinating-new-research-focuses-on-origins-of-life/

 

                The Berkshire Hathaway annual report.

            https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2023/02/25/2022ar.pdf

 

                Knowing what you don’t know.

            https://ritholtz.com/2023/02/what-if-dunning-kruger-explains-everything/

 

 

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