The Morning Call---This cycle is no different

 

The Morning Call

 

2/24/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/0dte-call-buyers-rescue-stocks-hawkish-hobbling-bonds-bid

 

            Critical levels to watch.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/scariest-chart-bulls-are-ctas-about-sell-220-billion-stocks

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

January personal income rose 0.6% versus forecasts of +1.0%; January personal spending was up 1.8% versus +1.3%; the January PCE price index was up 0.6% versus +0.3%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/feds-favorite-inflation-signal-prints-hot-americans-spending-surged-jan

 

  The February Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at -9 versus   expectations of +1.

 

                        International

 

Q4 German GDP declined by 0.4% versus estimates of -0.2%; the March consumer confidence index was -30.5 versus -30.4.

 

January Japanese CPI was up 0.4% versus projections of +0.3%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Has housing bottomed?

                          https://www.pragcap.com/has-housing-bottomed/

 

                          Housing is the canary in the coal mine.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-housing-recession-canary-coal-mine

 

            The Fed

 

              Real interest rates are still negative.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-raises-challenge-fed-get-real-rates-positive

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

The Fed is trying to lower inflation; fiscal policy is increasing it.  While the headline is correct, The Hill gives Trump a pass on his contribution to this problem, i.e., shutting the economy down in the first place.

  https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3866603-the-fed-is-trying-to-lower-inflation-bidens-actions-are-increasing-it/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=247135847&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-816YKw04BbrqdDUwkFtHgHQ7XkjSHOmIA-bS-RROVOGZpV_gVgoYAXdX4Zed-y2UsndsU9w3Enc9uZ__bRZNeIo5Xe4w&utm_content=247135847&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

Having already proven that she inept at managing the Fed, Yellen is now trying her hand at foreign affairs---good luck with that.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/23/business/yellen-ukraine-g20.html

 

            Geopolitics

 

              The Ukraine war’s prelude to what?

              https://townhall.com/columnists/victordavishanson/2023/02/23/the-ukraine-wars-prelude-to-what-n2619874

 

     Investor Alert

 

In our quarterly review of Cummins, Inc. (CMI) it failed to meet the minimum financial criteria for inclusion in the Dividend Growth Universe/Portfolio.  Accordingly, at the open, the Dividend Growth Portfolio will Sell its holding of CMI.

 

    Bottom line

 

            This cycle is no different.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/do-not-be-fooled-it-return-normal

 

            2023 quarterly S&P dividend forecast.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/02/winter-2023-animated-snapshot-of-future.html#.Y_etKHbMKUk

 

            Cash is no longer trash.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/desperately-seeking-yield-23-february-2023/

 

            An analysis of the current equity risk premium.

            https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/blog/2023/02/23/the-most-important-charts-for-2023

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

EOG Resources press release (NYSE:EOG): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.30 misses by $0.10.

Revenue of $6.72B (+11.3% Y/Y) beats by $630M.

 

EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) declares $0.825/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Declares special dividend of $1.00 per share.           

 

What I am reading today

 

            Shocking discovery from new Webb telescope.

            https://www.kare11.com/article/news/nation-world/webb-space-telescope-massive-galaxies-discovery/507-9a71db8b-28bb-49c9-b781-379baa925e46

           

                        The Swedish model of funding education.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/fixing-uk-school-education

 

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