The Morning Call---That Chinese balloon

 

The Morning Call

 

2/7/23

 

I am travelling today. Back on Thursday

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Monday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/massive-hawkish-reversal-rate-hike-odds-sparks-greenback-gains-bond-bloodbath

 

Another bullish sign.

https://allstarcharts.com/the-median-stock-breaks-out/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

The December trade balance was -$67.4 billion versus expectations of -$68.5 billion.

 

                        International

 

December Japanese household spending fell 2.1% versus forecasts of +0.3%; the December leading economic indicators  came in at 97.2 versus 97.0.

 

December German industrial production was down 3.1% versus estimates of -0.7%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Why productivity in the construction industry is so low.

                          https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/02/klein-on-construction.html

 

                          Heavy truck sales up 6% YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/02/heavy-truck-sales-up-6-year-over-year.html

 

                          Home prices declined in December.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/02/black-knight-mortgage-monitor-home.html

 

            The Fed

 

              Monetary levels matter.

              https://global-macro-monitor.com/2023/02/02/monetary-levels-matter/

 

              Disparity among the central banks and confusion in the financial markets.

              https://www.ft.com/content/7eb30653-2cfa-4c9e-b968-34749c3116e3

 

              What to expect from Powell/Fed comments in the days ahead.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-what-expect-powellfed-comments-days-ahead

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

The annual interest payment on US government debt is now $850 billion and rising.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/annual-interest-rate-payment-government-debt-850-billion-and-rising-fast

 

            Recession

 

              States are flush with cash which could soften a recession.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/states-are-flush-with-cash-which-could-soften-a-possible-recession-11675544984?mod=economy_lead_pos1

           

              Loan standards approaching record tightness.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-loan-officers-paints-dire-picture-loan-standards-approaching-record-tightness-loan

 

              Geopolitical

 

                The Ukrainian paradox.

                 https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/victor-davis-hanson-ukrainian-paradoxes

 

            The Chinese Balloon

 

              Game theory of the balloons.

  https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/02/the-game-theory-of-the-balloons.html

 

  When did we know about that balloon.

  https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2023/02/05/bidens-story-about-the-spy-balloon-doesnt-add-up-heres-what-most-likely-happened-n1668015

 

 

  More from an aerospace expert.

  https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/02/chinese-spy-balloon-over-the-us-an-aerospace-expert-explains-how-the-balloons-work-and-what-they-can-see.html

                

              Give me a break.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/norad-pleads-incompetence-over-failure-spot-trump-era-chinese-spy-balloons

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

Tuesday morning humor.

https://cafehayek.com/2023/02/bill-maher-eviscerates-the-woke.html

 

The path to greatness.

https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2023/02/what-is-path-to-your-greatness.html

 

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