The Morning Call--The credit hype machine is going to break

The Morning Call

 

2/10/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-bullion-and-bitcoin-all-blasted-amid-broadbased-selling

 

            Market spooked by large put buyer.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-spooked-large-sp-4050-put-buyer-spike-vvix

 

            Goldman trader turns bearish.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/im-flipping-tactical-bear-few-weeks-right-here-goldmans-biggest-ficc-bull-just-turned

 

            Is it risk on, again?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-it-risk-on-again/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

December UK GDP was down 0.5% versus consensus of -0.3%; the December trade balance was L-7.15 billion versus L-2.8 billion; December industrial production was up 0.3% versus -0.2%; December YoY construction orders fell 4.3% versus -10.4%.

 

January Japanese PPI was 0.0% versus estimates of +0.3%.

 

January Chinese CPI was +0.8% versus projections of +0.7%; January YoY vehicle sales were down 3.5% versus -10.0%.

 

                        Other

           

The Fed

 

  How accurate are the monetary aggregates in predicting monetary policy?

  https://www.themoneyillusion.com/where-is-the-money-going/

 

  How high does the Fed think rates must go to curb inflation?

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-williams-says-policy-will-have-to-be-kept-sufficiently-restrictive-for-few-years-11675870597

 

  The Fed thinks that it is different this time.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beware-fed-thinks-its-different-time

 

Fiscal Policy

 

  The fight over the debt ceiling is just beginning.

  https://reason.com/2023/02/09/the-fight-over-the-debt-ceiling-is-just-beginning/

 

Inflation

 

  There is more inflation complexity ahead.

  https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-the-resurgent-transitory-inflation-narrative-is-dangerous-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2023-  02?utm_source=project-syndicate.org&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=authnote&

 

 

  Used car price jump adds to inflation woes.

   https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-08/surprise-used-car-price-jump-adds-to-fed-s-worries-on-inflation?cmpid=BBD020823_BIZ&utm_term=230208&sref=loFkkPMQ&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=245307882&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--qh2cZ4pHKJR7LTClToFVkgRICXZV8ZFxz6AKcePwTq8fQNu4DGq0t7lLYalaj1Eqf-zj6N_LZVUkZYe4iYUeW42SzlQ&utm_content=245307882&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

  Russia will cut oil production by 500,000 b/d.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/brent-crude-jumps-russia-cut-5-oil-output

 

Geopolitical

 

  The mess our ruling class has gotten us into.

  https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/02/elite-splits-over-ukraine-shed-a-tiny-bit-of-light-on-factions.html

 

China

 

  The collapse of imports from China continues.

  https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/02/continued-collapse-of-us-imports-from.html#.Y-U7M3bMKUk

 

  The latest on the Chinese balloon.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-links-chinas-military-balloon-surveillance-program-targeted-over-40-countries

 

    Bottom line.                   

 

            The bear market is not done yet.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ignore-noise-bear-markets-not-done-yet

 

            Goldilocks is a fairy tale too good to be true.

            https://www.wsj.com/articles/goldilocks-economy-is-a-fairy-tale-too-good-to-be-true-11675860231

 

            Beware the AI bubble.

            https://thereformedbroker.com/2023/02/07/the-ai-bubble-of-2023/

 

            The credit hype machine is going to break (must read).

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/02/09/the-credit-hype-machine-is-going-to-break

 

            Corporate bonds are looking pricey.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-09/corporate-bonds-are-looking-pricey-for-some-after-steep-rally?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Nike (NYSE:NKE) declares $0.34/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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