The Morning Call---Forget the Fed stopping to 'watch and wait'

 

The Morning Call

 

2/23/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-dollar-bid-fed-minutes-spark-selloff-stocks-gold

 

Note: the S&P closed right on the lower boundary of the very short term uptrend off its October low.  Let’s see if it holds.

 

            Another strategist looking at 3800.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3800-handle

 

            Glass half full or half empty.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/economy-earnings-glass-half-full-or-half-empty

 

            For the bulls.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2023/02/why-the-new-bull-market-breakout-is-the-real-deal/

 

            Near term headwind for equities.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/major-near-term-headwind-equities

 

            The yield curve continues to steepen.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-recessions-were-preceded-aignificant-bear-steepening-3m30y-about-3-9-months-they

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                        

 Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 192,000 versus predictions of 200,000.

 

 Q4 (second estimate) GDP grew 2.7% versus consensus of +2.9%; the GDP price index was +3.9% versus +3.5%.

 

The January Chicago Fed national activity index was reported at +.23 versus forecasts of -.25.

 

                        International

 

                          January EU CPI was -0.2%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          The latest Q1 GDP nowcasts.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/early-median-estimate-for-us-gdp-in-q1-skews-slightly-negative/

 

                          January architecture billings continue to contract.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/02/aia-architecture-billings-continue-to.html

 

            The Fed

 

The FOMC released the minutes from its last meeting.  The main headline was that the participants unanimously agreed on further rate hikes.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/02/fomc-minutes-all-participants-continued.html

 

              The missing pieces from the Fed minutes.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/missing-pieces-fed-minutes-bigger-move-debate

 

              Forget the Fed stopping to ‘watch and wait’.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/2-utopia

 

              David Stockman takes another swing at the Fed.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/david-stockman-feds-giant-economic-science-experiment

 

            The coronavirus

 

              This from the NY Times: the mask mandates did nothing.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/21/opinion/do-mask-mandates-work.html

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Who is losing and winning the economic war over Ukraine?

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/02/whos-winning-and-losing-the-economic-war-over-ukraine.html

 

              China ready to join forces with Russia.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-says-ready-join-forces-russia-defend-national-interests-putin-confirms-xi-visit

 

              If you really want to get depressed, read this.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/neocons-know-monetary-system-collapsing-martin-armstrong-warns-war-checks-all-boxes

 

              The politics of fertilizer.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-02-20/feed-the-world-without-fertilizer-why-crop-nutrients-are-suddenly-political?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=246911572&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9fxAIrMOGUwn7CCJO_usj3kQnxWdgbrDE7iMsf1HA3CLW_9ZTXLG5rydo9MtBFftjDqAVI3m1ODOhuRPKcjJvTWwlG8w&utm_content=246911572&utm_source=hs_email

 

     Investor Alert

 

Intel cut its dividend.  Therefore, the Dividend Growth Portfolio is Selling its position.

 

    Bottom line.

 

            S&P trailing EPS estimates as of 2/15

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/02/winter-2023-snapshot-of-expected-future.html#.Y_ZoDnbMKUk

 

            In praise of diversification.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/02/20/weekly-market-pulse-patience-is-required/

 

            REITs as an inflation hedge.

            https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b8xk8kbfntr416/REITs-Can-Hedge-Inflation-But-Not-During-a-Market-Crisis

 

            Short termism is self-defeating.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2023/02/22/short-termism-is-our-default-setting/

 

This is a decent discussion on why buying quality companies is a good investment strategy; but the author misses a key point---you buy their stocks when they are historically cheap----period.  There are any number of ways of doing that but the value bands that our model creates (Buy Level; Sell Half Level) is an effective way of doing so.  It just takes patience to wait for Market psychology to turn really negative and give us an entry point.

https://blog.validea.com/a-detailed-look-at-the-quality-factor-2/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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