The Morning Call
2/1/23
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Note: the S&P
once again traded above the upper boundary of its short term downtrend---the
day after it negated last Thursday’s challenge.
Such an occurrence always raises the issue (1) was Monday’s retreat
below that boundary just noise; therefore, should be ignored and the challenge beginning
last Thursday should be viewed as successful or (2) does that upper boundary
really have strength as resistance, that we should expect more trading above
and below it and therefore, could it potentially be a top? We just have to wait for the answer; but the
point is don’t get too jiggy with yesterday’s pin action until there is solid
follow through.
What do bull markets
look like?
https://allstarcharts.com/welcome-to-the-beta-chase/
Time to hedge the
downside?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bears-are-launching-counter-attack-will-it-work
Recession forecasts
at odds with bullish formations.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/recession-forecasts-odds-bullish-formations
Turmoil lurks around
the corner.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/turmoil-lurks-around-corner
Central bank buying
drives gold demand to decade high.
https://www.ft.com/content/ef6ed550-422a-4540-a8af-41ff2ac30e67
But its chart is
near a breakdown.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/charts-we-are-watching-gold-breaking-down
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
declined 9.0% while purchase applications were down 10.3%.
The November Case Shiller
home price index declined 0.1% versus forecasts of -0.4%.
The January
Chicago PMI was reported at 44.2 versus projections of 45.0.
January consumer confidence
came in at 107.1 versus consensus of 109.0.
The January ADP
private payrolls report showed job increases of 106,000 versus estimates of
178,000.
International
The December EU unemployment
rate was 6.6% versus predictions of 6.5%; January CPI was -0.4% versus -0.2%.
The January
Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI was 49.2 versus expectations of 49.5; the
January German manufacturing PMI was 47.3 versus 47.0; the January EU manufacturing
PMI was 48.8 versus 48.0; the January UK manufacturing PMI was 47.0 versus
46.7.
Other
The
Fed
Another negative outcome of QEInfinity.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/01/30/weekly-market-pulse-first-kill-all-the-speculators/
Some FOMC
governors are pointing to a rate hike pause in May.
Fed officials see
lots of room to shrink its balance sheet.
Fiscal
Policy
The experiment that failed.
Recession
Recession probability nearing 50%.
IMF raises 2023 global and US growth outlook
slightly.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/01/imf-weo-on-us-gdp
Geopolitics
Ukraine proves that we have learned nothing.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-proves-we-learned-nothing-vietnam-war
Bottom line
The latest from
Hoard Marks.
https://themarket.ch/english/howard-marks-most-important-question-is-about-stagflation-ld.8325
Ten macroeconomic
themes for 2023.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/01/31/10-macroeconomic-themes-for-2023
Ed Yardini says be
careful.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Exxon Mobil press release (NYSE:XOM): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.40 beats by $0.12.
Revenue
of $95.43B (+12.3% Y/Y) beats by $5.22B.
Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) declares $0.91/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
UPS press release (NYSE:UPS): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.62 beats by $0.03.
Revenue of $27B (-2.7% Y/Y) misses
by $1.03B.
UPS (NYSE:UPS) declares $1.62/share quarterly dividend, 6.6% increase from prior
dividend of $1.52.
Altria press release (NYSE:MO): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.18 beats by $0.02.
Revenue of $5.08B (-0.2% Y/Y) misses by $70M.
The company authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase
program, expected to complete by December 31, 2023.
What
I am reading today
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment