The Morning Call---Morgan Stanley says 3000 on the S&P

The Morning Call

 

2/22/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-bloodbath-triggers-biggest-stock-puke-year

 

            Overbought/oversold watch.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/oversold-overbought-watch-sp-500-index-21-february-2023/

 

            Has the correction started?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/02/21/the-correction-may-have-started-will-bulls-remain-in-control

 

            What if the Market decides to screw everyone?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-market-decides-screw-everyone-how-trade-it

 

            Will the third year of the presidential cycle adhere to its historical performance?

            https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2023/02/14/election-cycle-theory-year-three/?s_cid=eml_Enterprising

 

            Industrials are the Market leaders.

            https://allstarcharts.com/industrials-are-the-leaders-in-this-bull-market/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 13.3% while purchase applications were down 18.1%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales showed faster growth than in the prior week.

 

                          January existing home sales fell 0.7% versus expectations of +2.0%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/02/21/existing-home-sales-fall-for-12th-consecutive-month-lowest-since-2010

 

The February flash manufacturing PMI was 47.8 versus estimates of 47.1; the flash services PMI was 50.5 versus 47.2; the flash composite PMI was 50.2 versus 47.5.

 

                        International

 

January German CPI came in at 1.0%, in line; the February business climate index was 91.1 versus 91.2; the February current conditions index was 93.9 versus 95.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Do declining imports signal an imminent recession?

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/02/do-declining-imports-signal-and-imminent-recession

 

            The Fed

 

              M2 growth may become important again.

              https://www.ft.com/content/aa991a72-f91b-4eec-bad9-9571360d2a4e

 

            Bottom line.

 

              Morgan Stanley calling for a drop to 3000 on the S&P.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-21/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-says-stocks-most-expensive-since-2007-ledvil3v?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Fed policy and gold.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-investors-are-betting-fed

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            China successfully tests phantom space strike weapon.

            https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11772149/China-successfully-tests-phantom-space-strike-weapon-overwhelm-missile-defence-system.html

 

            The pain ends when you make it end.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2023/02/reaching-your-goals-through-gentle-power.html

 

            Financing student loans.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/financing-higher-education

           

                        Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/02/quotation-of-the-day-4186.html

 

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