The Morning Call
2/2/23
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powells-dovish-presser-sparks-bid-bonds-big-tech-bitcoin-bullion
Note:
Powell’s dovish rhetoric (see below) sent investors tip toeing through the
tulips. The S&P traded up. If it closes above the upper boundary of its short-term
downtrend today, it will reset to a trading range. As important, the index marked a higher high
which keeps the uptrend off its October low intact. It appears likely that it will challenge the
23.6% Fibonacci level (~4200).
Bond
volatility matters.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/power-move
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial
jobless claims totaled 183,000 versus projections of 200,000.
Q4 nonfarm
productivity rose 3.0% versus expectations of 2.4%; unit labor costs were up
1.1% versus +1.5%.
The December job
openings report (JOLTS) showed 11.0 million available jobs versus estimates of
10.25 million.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/02/01/december-job-openings-labor-turnover
December
construction spending fell 0.4% versus predictions of being flat.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/02/construction-spending-decreased-04-in.html
The January
manufacturing PMI was 46.9 versus forecasts of 46.8.
The January ISM
manufacturing index was 47.4 versus consensus 48.0.
International
The December German
trade balance was E9.7 billion versus projections of E5.1 billion.
Other
December median household income.
The
Fed
The FOMC wrapped
up its meeting yesterday. As expected,
it raised the Fed Funds rate 25 basis points.
In its concluding statement, the committee noted ongoing rate increases
were appropriate (hawkish) and that it expected to maintain rates at a sufficiently
restrictive level (hawkish)---in short, a higher for longer message. But then in Powell’s press conference, he
acknowledged that progress was being made in combatting inflation (dovish) and
chose not to argue with the notion that the Market was correct in discounting
an end to rate hikes in the near future (dovish). So again a ‘on the one hand/on the other
hand’ narrative typical of the Fed. But
the bottom line is that the Market thinks that it is right in assuming that the
‘higher for longer’ scenario is a low probability.
Sticking a ‘soft’ landing.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/01/31/this-is-the-soft-landing-what-now/
This analyst agrees.
https://alephblog.com/2023/02/01/understanding-the-fomc-through-the-eyes-of-a-child/
Counterpoint.
https://www.ft.com/content/d5204b8f-0aea-414b-999b-0984a8cb166e
Don’t believe a word he says.
https://thereformedbroker.com/2023/02/01/now-listen-up-and-listen-good/
The Bank of England
hiked official rates by 50 basis points but hinted that it may be the last.
Fiscal
Policy
Senate considering raising corporate taxes.
Inflation
Rents continue to decline.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/02/rents-continue-to-decline-apartment.html
Recession
A look at different recession predictors for different time horizons.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/01/different-predictors-at-different-horizons
Bottom line
Lessons from 2008.
https://investmenttalk.substack.com/p/the-forgotten-lessons-of-2008-seth
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Illinois
Tool Works press release (NYSE:ITW): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.34 misses by $0.19.
Revenue
of $3.97B (+7.3% Y/Y) beats by $70M.
FactSet
Research Systems (NYSE:FDS) declares $0.89/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Everything that you can’t have.
https://collabfund.com/blog/everything-you-cant-have/
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment