The Morning Call---Rates may be headed higher than Market/Fed thinks

 

The Morning Call

 

2/17/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bullion-bid-stocks-skid-after-stagflation-signals-hawkish-fedspeak

 

            Charts to watch.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/charts-we-are-watching-breaching-trends

 

            More for the bulls.

            https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/the-truth-no-one-wants-to-hear-about-stocks/rcm

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

                          January German PPI was -1.0% versus consensus of -1.6%.

 

January UK retail sales were up 0.5% versus expectations of +0.3%; ex fuel, they were up 0.4% versus 0.0%.               

 

                        Other

 

                          Key economic indicators as of mid-January.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/02/business-cycle-indicators-mid-january-2023

 

                          Atlanta Fed’s latest nowcast.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=246356778&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9a_UzFj6k8nUKz6quJ9ul10hFFqfjk1DkRmUGluD8qDb9UMtiTXNMvXOEVW-CJkCJWgpXnDDdstFz7U_PuJYeJ2YbngA&utm_content=246356778&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

                        The latest NY Fed household debt and credit report.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/consumer-debt-soars-394bn-most-20-years-record-169-trillion-young-borrowers-struggle-repay

 

            The Fed

 

              There is no QT.

              https://www.ft.com/content/95857295-851a-41c8-8949-4f2a72647169

 

              Rates may be headed higher than Wall Street or the Fed think.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-16/us-rates-may-be-heading-higher-than-wall-street-or-the-fed-think?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Gauging how tight the Fed really is.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-ways-gauge-how-hawkish-fed-really

 

              The lines between the Fed, the Treasury and the White House are getting blurred.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/lines-between-fed-treasury-and-white-house-have-completely-blurred

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

The Congressional Budget Office predicts the 2023 budget deficit will reach $1.4 trillion.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/15/inflation-persist-until-2026-federal-experts-00083033?cid=apn

 

Inflation

 

  Goods inflation warning.

  https://www.ft.com/content/d2871655-30ad-4a60-98ff-57e5e960a6dd

 

Recession

 

  Mortgage delinquencies increased in Q4.

  https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/02/mba-mortgage-delinquencies-increase-in.html

 

            Geopolitics

 

I mentioned in a prior note that the US is chewing through its inventory of ammunition.  Apparently everybody is---except the Chinese who I am sure are reading this article.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-16/when-will-ukraine-war-end-ammo-shortage-risks-prolonged-conflict?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Russia issues dire warning.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-diplomats-issue-dire-warnings-war-us-close

 

              The end game.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rickards-horrifying-endgame-ukraine

 

            China

 

              Will China and the US meet in Munich?

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-diplomats-see-chance-to-clear-the-air-over-balloon-d9567e34?mod=politics_lead_pos1&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=246356778&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8cnNF-DtQWLejn1Dw0dGOUh-LR0DBKTNjw9WbazMMwYjW3VZPOmrf3BrUdYUddzy-r0idKRvJLJPJkd1jNaaEgF9seUg&utm_content=246356778&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

    Bottom line

 

            11 things that zero interest rates caused.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/11-things-0-interest-rates-caused

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) declares $1.48/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            It is not capitalism, its competition.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/its-not-the-capitalism-or-socialism-that-matters-so-much-its-the-markets-and-competition

 

            Destroying meritocracy is dangerous.

            https://townhall.com/columnists/victordavishanson/2023/02/16/destroying-meritocracy-is-deadly-n2619627

 

 

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