The Morning Call---The math to lower inflation

 

The Morning Call

 

2/14/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-soar-despite-hawkish-rate-scare-ahead-cpi

 

            Five clues that this is not a bear market rally.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/five-clues-this-isnt-just-a-bear-market-rally/

 

            The argument for why the yield curve is wrong.

            https://www.ft.com/content/073f3c0e-4766-45e9-89a1-8e990a777eb3

           

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

The January small business optimism index came in at 90.3 versus predictions of 90.5.

 

January CPI was reported at +0.5%, in line; core CPI was +0.4%, also in line.     

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/core-cpi-rises-32nd-straight-month-headline-inflation-hotter-expected-yoy-driven

 

                        International

 

The December UK unemployment rate was 3.7%, in line; December average earnings were up 5.9% versus +6.2%.

 

The preliminary Q4 Japanese GDP grew 0.2% versus estimates of +0.5%; December industrial production was up 0.3% versus -0.1%.

 

Q4 EU unemployment rose 0.4% versus consensus of +0.2%; the Q4 second estimated GDP growth was +0.1%, in line.

 

January German PPI was up 0.2% versus projections of -1.4%.

 

                        Other

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The argument against raising the social security retirement age.

  https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/12/social-security-full-retirement-age-shouldnt-go-higher-experts-say.html?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=245793968&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--bZPSTuKs-3CaAwzOHbE5BU9-O072_da755q7zWl81crIeZ9Ai7Bhltl6NyHlGBpzjuLLNzFMTU2Qz_9CduLFDFYrqhw&utm_content=245793968&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

            Inflation

 

              The math of lower inflation.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-is-falling-and-where-it-lands-depends-on-these-three-things-a0353b9d?mod=economy_lead_story

 

              Food prices coming down.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/inflation-pressure-persist-not-because-food-prices

 

            Recession

 

              The ‘no landing’ scenario.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/hard-or-soft-landing-some-economists-see-neither-if-growth-accelerates-854846ea?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Is civilization at stake in Ukraine?

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/02/is-civilization-at-stake-in-ukraine.html

 

     Bottom Line

 

            Bullish investors continue to fight the Fed.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/02/13/bullish-investors-continue-to-fight-the-fed

 

            More skepticism.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-10/clock-ticking-louder-on-a-stock-rally-the-pros-never-believed-in?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Rare asteroid maybe worth 70,000 times the global economy.

            https://robbreport.com/motors/aviation/nasa-voyage-rare-16-psyche-asteroid-1234797211/

 

            Winners of the 2022 ocean art underwater photo contest.

            https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2023/01/winners-2022-ocean-art-underwater-photo-contest/672831/

 

            We change by doing.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2023/02/our-physical-experience-shapes-our.html

 

           

                        Want to feel good on this Valentine’s Day?  Watch this.

           

 

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