The Morning Call
2/3/23
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Be fearful when
others are greedy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/be-fearful-when-others-are-greedy
Are we getting
close to a reversal?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/little-more-and-something-about-blow
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
December factory
orders were up 1.8% versus estimates of +2.2%; ex transportation, they were
down 1.2% versus -0.4%.
January nonfarm
payrolls grew 517,000 versus expectations of 185,000; the unemployment rate was
3.4% versus 3.6%.
International
December EU PPI came in at +1.1% versus predictions
of -0.4%.
The January
Japanese services PMI was 52.3 versus consensus of 52.4; the composite PMI was
50.7 versus 50.8; the January Chinese Caixin services PMI was 52.9 versus 52.0;
the composite PMI was 51.1 versus 52.8; the January German services PMI was
50.7 versus 50.4; the composite PMI was 49.9 versus 49.7; the January EU
services PMI was 50.8 versus 50.7; the composite PMI was 50.3 versus 50.2; the
January UK services PMI was 48.7 versus 48.0; the composite PMI was 48.5 versus
47.8.
Other
Peak oil?
http://econospeak.blogspot.com/2023/02/the-unbearable-tightness-of-peaking.html
Vehicle sales increased in January.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/02/vehicles-sales-increased-to-1574.html
The
Fed
The Fed’s game of chicken with the stock
market.
https://global-macro-monitor.com/2023/01/31/the-feds-game-of-chicken-with-the-stock-market/
Some data suggesting that the Fed is winning
the war against inflation.
https://www.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/2023/01/31/is-the-fed-winning-the-inflation-war/
Fiscal
Policy
The debt ceiling and the high cost of debt.
https://www.cato.org/blog/debt-limit-high-costs-debt
Inflation
Inflation adjusted housing pricing down from
peak.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/02/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-36.html
Recession
Recession probabilities using foreign term spreads.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/02/recession-probabilities-incorporating-foreign-term-spreads
Falling mortgage rates bringing some buyers
back into the market.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/business/mortgage-rates-housing-market.html
Contraction in global manufacturing shows signs
of easing.
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5584ccb27653494684d64507a3c5a677
Bottom line
January dividends
by the numbers.
Update on
valuations.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/02/02/p-e10-january-2022-update
The current
valuation reset.
https://www.ft.com/content/f17bfe4e-d7c7-4105-bc65-7bbdc99de83e
When it is too
good to be true, it isn’t---a guide to avoid stupid investments.
https://ritholtz.com/2023/02/50-risk-free-annual-returns/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Apple press release (NASDAQ:AAPL): Q1 GAAP EPS of $1.88 misses by $0.07.
Revenue
of $117.15B (-5.5% Y/Y) misses by $4.5B.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) declares $0.23/share quarterly dividend,
in line with previous.
McDonald's
(NYSE:MCD) declares $1.52/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Astronomers
say that they have spotted the universe’s first stars.
https://www.quantamagazine.org/astronomers-say-they-have-spotted-the-universes-first-stars-20230130/
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
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