Wednesday, February 15, 2023

The Morning Call---Higher rates starting to trump FOMO

 

The Morning Call

 

2/15/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bounce-no-love-bonds-cpi-wrecks-dreams-fed-pivot

 

            Sentiment indicators now show more bulls than bears.

            https://allstarcharts.com/not-euphoria-2023/

           

            The correction may have already started.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/correction-may-have-started-will-bulls-remain-control

 

            Higher rates are starting to trump FOMO.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/trillions-selling-jomo-trumps-fomo

 

            Gold breaking below 50 DMA.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-breaking-below-50-day-moving-average

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 7.7% while purchase applications were down 5.5%.

 

January retail sales were up 3.0% versus estimates of +1.8%; ex autos, they were up 2.6% versus +0.4%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-nominal-retail-sales-soared-january

 

The February NY Fed manufacturing index came in at -5.8 versus consensus of -18.

                       

           

                        International

 

December EU industrial production  was down 1.1% versus predictions of -0.8%; the December trade balance was E-8.8 billion versus E-12.5 billion.

 

January UK CPI was -0.6% versus forecasts of -0.4%; core CPI was -0.9% versus -0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Prices are still going up and consumers are still spending.

  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prices-are-still-going-up-and-consumers-are-still-spending-morning-brief-110002196.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY2FwaXRhbHNwZWN0YXRvci5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAC1V8-m267svNrXbZ6ee2E6mQkGyrA4Q7dojYgQqnrqHO9YDLkSWNf-ah_BeStyoYy33b2EFYs6k_makDGOBihGtkISncoGbfaW7bMKDTOgbu1ocoWa-qnxp4sxIwERT1BYdrk6psN6yhaDfNunalirEL1l7JTt1qYhqj7QmkA4v

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The rachet effect in federal government spending.

              https://www.aier.org/article/will-federal-spending-be-brought-under-control/

 

            Recession

 

             Can we really avoid a recession?

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/02/12/weekly-market-pulse-look-up-in-the-sky-its-a-ufo-or-not/

 

 

            The Chinese Balloon

 

              The Chinese balloon was a ‘Sputnik’ moment.

              https://www.commentary.org/noah-rothman/the-balloon-really-was-a-sputnik-moment/

 

    Bottom line

 

            Knowing what you don’t know.

            https://ritholtz.com/2023/02/alien-invasion/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Mastercard (NYSE:MA) declares $0.57/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Cummins (NYSE:CMI) declares $1.57/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The 18 best live sports experiences on earth.

            https://www.gq.com/story/18-best-live-sports-events

 

 

 

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