The Morning Call--Goolsbee addresses the supply shortage/demand pull inflation dichotomy

 

The Morning Call

 

9/22/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bitcoin-buying-panic-after-bessent-bullishness-black-gold-breakdown-trump-bad?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI1ODEzIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MDAyMTg1MiwiZXhwIjoxNzkyNjEzODUyLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0._IiX-Q_UGGMyNddzMcVRXhszLEcHUlVLjc-9JGIAtXg

 

Note: the S&P surged higher, pushing through the upper boundary of a very short term downtrend.  Good news of course; and if you think that there is more to come, then the next visible resistance point is the upper boundary of the index’s short term uptrend (~8030).  However, the pin action was on a large gap up open, introducing some downside pull.  So the breakout isn’t as clear cut as it could otherwise be.  Still it was impressive enough that I bought a one half position in TJX.

 

 

            Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s head of hedge fund trending.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-pasquariello-sees-tricky-footing-ahead-higher-stocks-yields-commodity-prices-year?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI1ODA1Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MDAyMDMzMiwiZXhwIjoxNzkyNjEyMzMyLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.BjKsBHj4cauONm2kbtnwo1DVmy5BMZozavmwI-ylH1U

 

                        Update on the Bitcoin technicals.

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/after-billion-dollar-etf-inflow-bitcoin-breakout-outs-108k-sight?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI1ODg3Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MDA4MjM1OCwiZXhwIjoxNzkyNjc0MzU4LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.7foZKb7CDqIVlAbWvXvdLjRInMpleeHz7VSXJXw2fA4

 

 

Tuesday morning setup. Futures are flat, having recovered a modest drop after the European open, following yesterday’s strong, positive performance despite energy prices and yields being lower for a second consecutive day. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are fractionally in the green after an advance in tech giants and chipmakers drove the index to a one-month high. In premarket trading, semis are down ~60bp after a blistering 5-day run that added 11.2%. Memory names are weaker as Mag7 and Software remain bid. Alibaba ADRs (BABA) gain 3% as the company is rolling out what it calls China’s most powerful AI chip, an accelerator to compete with Nvidia Corp. Brent crude erased gains of as much as 2% to fall toward $98 a barrel. The reversal came after Japan’s Kyodo News Agency reported that Iran has proposed to reopen Hormuz within seven days if the US blockade is lifted. While Iran has since denied this report, a separate report that Saudis may restart the East-West pipeline helped sentiment. Treasury yields turned lower, with the 10-year rate down two basis points to 4.93%. The dollar barely budged while the entire commodity complex is lower, though Base Metals are a bid. These moves likely reflect growing optimism around a diplomatic solution in the Middle East and improved US / China relations, which combined will support AI and lower energy prices, and potentially lower tariff rates. Today’s macro data focus is on ADP’s weekly number, regional Fed activity indicators, and another Fed speaker. Looking ahead, highlights include UN Meetings: UN General Debate including Trump, Macron, Burnham; Trump-Zelensky meeting; Trump-Burnham meeting; Trump-Gulf Leaders meeting. 

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

The September UK industrial trends orders index was -9 versus consensus of -34.

 

                        Other

 

                        Gold moving out of the US is not a big deal.

                        https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/09/18/america-doesnt-need-worlds-gold/

 

                        Rising Q3 growth expectations.

                        https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economy-picks-up-in-q3-as-rising-rates-threaten-momentum/

 

                        The inflationary expansion continues.

                        https://seekingalpha.com/article/4947978-weekly-indicators-the-inflationary-expansion-continues

 

            Iran

 

              Overnight news.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/brent-tumbles-below-100-after-report-says-iran-offers-reopen-hormuz-chokepoint

 

              US attempts to shut down the Iranian airline industry.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/bessent-declares-all-iran-airlines-be-shut-down-around-world-wednesday

 

            Monetary Policy

           

              The Fed is fighting the wrong war.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/6095830-fed-interest-rate-hike/

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/this-is-still-a-dovish-fed/

 

              Where we should be based on the Taylor Rule.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/09/where-should-we-be-taylor-rule-wise

 

Fed’s Goolsbee addresses the supply shortage/demand pull inflation dichotomy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-21/fed-s-goolsbee-says-road-to-2-inflation-may-not-be-painless?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy

 

            AI

 

              When the leaders in AI all agree, read the fine print.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/09/21/when_the_three_most_powerful_men_in_ai_agree_read_the_fine_print_1207085.html

 

              Keep digging says the shovel salesman.

                          https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/keep-digging-says-shovel-salesman?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

 

     Investing

 

            The latest from Morgan Stanley.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanleys-mike-wilson-warns-higher-yields-and-energy-prices-could-spark-10-market?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI1ODQ2Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MDA4MDg3NywiZXhwIjoxNzkyNjcyODc3LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.O_kgZVNiE9jpBi5uhD0qj45Ce0KuJYa2UePYdHoIR6E

 

 

              Playing the long game.

  https://smeadcap.com/missives/no-country-for-old-or-young-men/?utm_campaign=Missives&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=439346167&utm_content=439149107&utm_source=hs_email

 

              What does Dow 100,000 mean?

                          https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/friends-dont-let-friends-wear-dow?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

 

                          Research indicates that you will take more risk after a loss.

             https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-research-says-you-will-take-more-risk-after-a-loss-here-is-what-it-costs

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2026/09/quotation-of-the-day-5507.html

 

 

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