The Morning Call
9/24/26
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Wednesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Support for the
bulls.
Even more support.
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/38ec1a08-2dbd-451c-9eda-a605fd157d79
Counterpoint.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-warning-signs-and-perfect-hedge
King dollar explodes
higher.
Thursday morning
set up: Futures are lower with Tech underperforming as part of a global
risk-off tone with few areas of safety, driven by a global bond rout that
has sent yields across the globe to levels not seen in a generation. As of
8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.6% lower with Nasdaq futures sliding 1.0% and
reflecting the fallout from Wednesday’s barrage of inflationary signals,
which sent stocks in Asia and Europe lower. In premarket trading, semis and
memory are lagging the broader tech tape for the 2nd day, with software seeing
slight outperformance, but still lower. Defensives and energy are leading
cyclicals. The yield curve is bear steepening with the back-end yields making
multi-year highs; pushing the 10Y yield to 5.14% and the 30Y yield to the
highest since 2004. This follows Wednesday’s US data and auction-led selling in
US paper with an ascent in energy prices today driving the moves
further. The rout in bonds swept into Asia, with yields in Japan,
Australia and New Zealand climbing by more than 10 basis points on Thursday.
The USD remains bid and DXY is less than 40bp from its 52-wk high. In
commodities, energy and ags resume their leadership as the market reduces its
optimism for an imminent solution in the MidEast; metals are weaker with
precious lagging. The Trump-Xi meeting will be one to watch on today's
calendar, following US Treasury Secretary Bessent's announcement of a two-month
extension to the trade truce which appears to have disappointed markets as it
was less than what China expected. US economic data slate includes 2Q
current account balance and weekly jobless claims (8:30 a.m.), August new home
sales (10 a.m.) and September Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11
a.m.)
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 197,000 versus
consensus of 201,000.
August
building permits fell 2.1% versus expectations of -2.7%.
The September flash
manufacturing PMI was 57.0 versus forecasts of 56.0; the
flash services PMI was 58.7 versus 56.0; the flash composite PMI was 58.3
versus 55.2.
International
The September
Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 54.1 versus predictions of 55.0; the flash
services PMI was 51.6 versus 52.7; the flash composite PMI was 52.5 versus
54.0.
The September German
business climate index came in at 89.9 versus estimates of 89.0; the September
current conditions index was 89.5 versus 89.0.
Other
ADP
data shows manufacturing employment continues to decline.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/09/manufacturing-employment-recovery-delayed
Counterpoint.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/09/the-rebound-in-manufacturing-employment.html
OECD says global growth stronger than expected
but threats mount.
Don’t believe the hype about China buying
oil.
Iran
Overnight news.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/war-could-expand-indian-ocean-if-us-attacks-resume-iran-warns
Inflation
The path to lower inflation runs through Iran.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-path-to-lower-inflation-still-runs-through-iran/
Tariffs
The US is badly
losing its trade war with China. As you know, I believe that imposing tariffs
based on the US trade deficit is a losing game. However, using them as part of
a program to stop Chinese theft of US intellectual property and exporting
fentanyl to the US (and other nations assuming more responsibility for their
own defense) is fair game. So, in my opinion, this analysis is only fair if
progress marked in the satisfaction of those other goals is also included.
Investing
Dividend demand
revives.
Private credit’s soft defaults.
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/9098a3f9-5585-4f6a-9ecc-7f953fc2696c
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Tips
on how not to die in the great outdoors.
When you can’t do
one thing, do something else.
https://www.yearofmentalhealth.com/p/when-you-cant-do-one-thing-do-something
The messy drama over Jimmy
Buffett’s $275 million trust.
Trump’s landmark deal with
Greenland.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-establish-two-new-military-bases-greenland
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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