The Morning Call---What if the emperor has no clothes?

The Morning Call

 

9/29/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bullion-battered-hormuz-headline-roulette-sparks-chaos-across-markets-ahead-macro-tsunami?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI2NTU0Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MDYyNjM3OSwiZXhwIjoxNzkzMjE4Mzc5LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.3rLadtD4vRlLCbXZKrJpg2rs_b304ZMPIbMZA9wNCEU

 

            Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The message from Market breadth.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/09/28/message-market-breadth

 

            Record highs, record angst.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/record-highs-record-angst-goldman-tech-desk-finds-median-stock-16-underwater-breadth?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI2NDYzIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MDYyNTEyNywiZXhwIjoxNzkzMjE3MTI3LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.Qk6JvjVsy93aHKhlkrBGbPQe15De5X4HvBw1X50kwZ4

 

 

            Nvidia launches $150 billion stock buyback.

            https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvidia-adds-record-150-billion-to-stock-buyback-910f96a8?st=LzZd8H&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

            The bond market is screaming.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bond-market-screaming-stocks-dont-care?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI2NjE0Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MDY4NjkyOSwiZXhwIjoxNzkzMjc4OTI5LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.Xlrrf8pB3pTU8RXx94qmfv6kqN5Xx60WokplWDW97do

 

 

            Gold under pressure.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/gold-under-pressure-as-fed-rate-bets-rise-ahead-of-us-jobs-data

 

Tuesday morning setup: US equity futures have reversed earlier losses and trade in the green, near session highs, as bond yields drop across the curve, following a decline in oil which has also hit the dollar, despite lack of any tangible news out of Iran and as traders brace for the week’s first labor data following a never ending firehose of artificial-intelligence news and events. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures rose 0.2% while Nasdaq futures gained 0.4%, as Mag7, semis, and memory stocks all see a mild bid while software is weaker; EU Semis are up more than 3% so we may see US get active as the market opens. The AI theme is also creating a bid across industrials and utilities; cyclicals leading defensives with notable weakness in Staples. Energy names are lower with crude prices. The commodities complex is mostly lower with gold seeing a moderate bid and some Ags higher. Oil is at session lows, down 2% as Saudi Arabia resumed flows through a key pipeline after comments from the Qatar Foreign Ministry on possible US-Iran solutions. Overall price action looks like a cautious re-risking with guarded optimism around a US / Iran deal. Today’s macro data focus is on JOLTS ahead of Friday’s NFP and another batch of Feds peakers.

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The September Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at 9.8 versus consensus of 1.0.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-cant-do-any-planning-dallas-fed-manufacturers-uniformly-negative

 

                        International

 

The July Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 97.9 versus expectations of 99.0.

 

The September EU economic sentiment index was 97.9 versus estimates of 99.0; the industrial sentiment index was -3.8 versus -4.7; the services sentiment index was 6.1 versus 6.5; the consumer confidence index was -11.5 versus -16.5.

 

                        Other

 

                          The reindustrialization of America is underway.

                         https://www.apollo.com/content/dam/apolloaem/documents/insights/the-reindustrialization-of-america-is-underway.pdf

 

            Iran    

 

              Just another TACO Monday.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ayatollah-vows-expel-enemy-arabian-sea-trump-says-talks-continue-week

 

              Overnight news.

 

Iran’s ability to choke off oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz—and use that as leverage in talks with the U.S.—is breaking down, raising the risk it will resort to military escalation to bolster its position.

 

Crude oil exports from key Middle East producers rebounded in September to 16.328 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest since the US-Israeli war on Iran started in late February, data from Kepler showed on Monday, as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates boosted exports.

 

President Trump is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release Iranian frozen funds in return for concrete Iranian steps regarding the nuclear program, U.S. officials say. But Trump took to Truth Social Monday evening to say such reports were "untrue.

 

            AI

 

              AI is repricing capital before it reprices the economy.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/09/28/ai_is_repricing_capital_before_it_reprices_the_economy_1208351.html

 

              What happens if the AI bubble bursts?

                          https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/26/opinion/ai-bubble-banking-crisis-too-big-to-fail.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ElE.X8v4.LjB-IIZA44Es&smid=url-share

 

              The AI earnings headwind.

              https://open.substack.com/pub/samro/p/ai-depreciation-expense-earnings-accounting-headwind?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

           

              What if the emperor has no clothes?

              https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/its-official-the-ai-emperor-has-no?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

           

     Investing

 

            Inversion of the yield curve becomes the new risk.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-27/the-bond-market-is-getting-closer-to-sounding-alarm-on-economy?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc5MDYxNTYyMSwiZXhwIjoxNzkxMjIwNDIxLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUTFE3TFRUOU5KTFgwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJCMzFCNTRDQTI3MTE0NjAxOUQxMURCN0IxRUM4NTE2MyJ9.79c-wiJhQlfIHRb6NMsvlgvGiRqmYbcQyijW0RCyfq0

 

 

            At what yield level does the economy and Markets implode?

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/at-what-yield-do-markets-and-the-economy-implode

           

            Another infallible indicator bites the dust.

            https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/09/another-infallible-economic-indicator.html

 

            The bond selloff deepens.

            https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/7d8de839-2d31-44ee-b07b-02c9992f3011

 

This is your father’s Market.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/weekly-market-pulse-finally

 

            Optimism wins as an investment strategy.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/investor-optimism-wins-as-an-investment-strategy

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Adding leverage to America’s gambling problem.

                        https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/adding-leverage-to-americas-gambling?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

 

 

 

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