Investing for Survival: iran

Thursday morning set up: Futures are lower with Tech underperforming as part of a global risk-off tone with few areas of safety, driven by a global bond rout that has sent yields across the globe to levels not seen in a generation. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.6% lower with Nasdaq futures sliding 1.0% and reflecting the fallout from Wednesday’s barrage of inflationary signals, which sent stocks in Asia and Europe lower. In premarket trading, semis and memory are lagging the broader tech tape for the 2nd day, with software seeing slight outperformance, but still lower. Defensives and energy are leading cyclicals. The yield curve is bear steepening with the back-end yields making multi-year highs; pushing the 10Y yield to 5.14% and the 30Y yield to the highest since 2004. This follows Wednesday’s US data and auction-led selling in US paper with an ascent in energy prices today driving the moves further. The rout in bonds swept into Asia, with yields in Japan, Australia and New Zealand climbing by more than 10 basis points on Thursday. The USD remains bid and DXY is less than 40bp from its 52-wk high. In commodities, energy and ags resume their leadership as the market reduces its optimism for an imminent solution in the MidEast; metals are weaker with precious lagging. The Trump-Xi meeting will be one to watch on today's calendar, following US Treasury Secretary Bessent's announcement of a two-month extension to the trade truce which appears to have disappointed markets as it was less than what China expected. US economic data slate includes 2Q current account balance and weekly jobless claims (8:30 a.m.), August new home sales (10 a.m.) and September Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11 a.m.)

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 197,000 versus consensus of 201,000.

August building permits fell 2.1% versus expectations of -2.7%.

The September flash manufacturing PMI was 57.0 versus forecasts of 56.0; the flash services PMI was 58.7 versus 56.0; the flash composite PMI was 58.3 versus 55.2.

International

The September Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 54.1 versus predictions of 55.0; the flash services PMI was 51.6 versus 52.7; the flash composite PMI was 52.5 versus 54.0.

The September German business climate index came in at 89.9 versus estimates of 89.0; the September current conditions index was 89.5 versus 89.0.

Other

ADP data shows manufacturing employment continues to decline.

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/09/manufacturing-employment-recovery-delayed

Counterpoint.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/09/the-rebound-in-manufacturing-employment.html

OECD says global growth stronger than expected but threats mount.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/global-economy-stronger-than-expected-but-threats-mount-oecd-says-7472619b?st=HpePwX&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Don’t believe the hype about China buying oil.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-09-23/china-isn-t-buying-more-oil-it-s-buying-from-different-markets?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy

Iran

Overnight news.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/war-could-expand-indian-ocean-if-us-attacks-resume-iran-warns

Inflation

The path to lower inflation runs through Iran.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-path-to-lower-inflation-still-runs-through-iran/

Tariffs

The US is badly losing its trade war with China. As you know, I believe that imposing tariffs based on the US trade deficit is a losing game. However, using them as part of a program to stop Chinese theft of US intellectual property and exporting fentanyl to the US (and other nations assuming more responsibility for their own defense) is fair game. So, in my opinion, this analysis is only fair if progress marked in the satisfaction of those other goals is also included.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-09-23/us-trade-policy-on-china-has-failed-by-its-own-standards?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy

Investing

Dividend demand revives.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/09/23/dividend-demand-revives-market-leadership-shifts

Private credit’s soft defaults.

https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/9098a3f9-5585-4f6a-9ecc-7f953fc2696c

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

What I am reading today

Tips on how not to die in the great outdoors.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/09/could-you-survive-the-oregon-trail-an-emergency-medicine-doctor-offers-tips-on-how-to-not-die-in-the-great-outdoors.html

When you can’t do one thing, do something else.

https://www.yearofmentalhealth.com/p/when-you-cant-do-one-thing-do-something

The messy drama over Jimmy Buffett’s $275 million trust.

https://www.wsj.com/style/lost-in-margaritaville-drama-jimmy-buffett-275-million-dollar-trust-65710c8d?st=ZwzT4Y&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Trump’s landmark deal with Greenland.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-establish-two-new-military-bases-greenland

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

The Morning Call---Earnings mean reversion

The Morning Call

9/23/26

The Market

Technical

Tuesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bid-banks-battered-agentic-anxiety-spreads-everything-else-hits-snooze?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI1OTMzIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MDExMTgzNiwiZXhwIjoxNzkyNzAzODM2LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.zaK8qhTxSJSvsi1iVFL-0BUi9n2TT_vBWcUB9vdqP2w

Tuesday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

The latest from Goldman.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yesterday-felt-proper-fomo-goldman-one-delta-desk-took-some-chips-table-sees-inference?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI1ODkzIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MDEwMzUzMSwiZXhwIjoxNzkyNjk1NTMxLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.M_g2fGntAscO833XS-AAK64VvsPe2L7DMsNxEXqjUAI

Gamma squeeze the world.

https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/gamma-squeeze-the-world?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

The crypto bear market is over.

https://www.riskhedge.com/the-jolt/the-crypto-bear-market-is-over

Wednesday morning setup: US equity futures are down modestly, but at session lows, as oil reverses earlier losses (crude was on pace for a sixth straight day of declines, its longest losing run in a year) sending Brent back over $100 and pushing 10Y yields back to 4.99%. As of 8:30am, S&P 500 futures were 0.1% lower with Nasdaq 100 futures sliding 0.3%, and also at session lows after hitting a record on Tuesday. In premarket trading, memory and semis are lower as Mag7/software are higher. Within SPX sectors, all of the majors have pockets of strength ex-Materials which are set to lag given the selloff in metals. Rising oil prices have also weighed on European equities, which have pared opening gains and left the Stoxx 600 down 0.5%, also at session lows. In Asia, Chinese and Hong Kong shares declined, trailing regional peers including South Korean and Taiwanese benchmarks. Oil remains the wildcard for stocks and bonds, while Meta’s Muse AI agent is reshaping sector rotation. Yields are notably higher, with 2Y yields rising to a 2 year high of 4.79% as the curve flattens aggressively, as the tactical market narrative seeks more color from UN meetings (US/China; US/Iran; NATO+UKR/Russia) before deciding direction. The USD rally continues with the DXY 75bp away from YTD highs set June 24. Commodities are lower ex-Energy which is seeing a bid within fuels / natgas and Brent is outperforming WTI. Base over Precious and Ags uniformly sold. The US economic calendar includes September S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMIs at 9:45 a.m. Fed speaker slate includes Governor Barr (10:05 a.m.) and Chicago’s Goolsbee (12 p.m.)

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

Weekly mortgage applications fell 1.5% while purchase applications were down 0.8%.

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 7.6% versus up 8.5% in the prior week.

The September Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at -2 versus estimates of +5.

International

The September EU flash consumer confidence index was -16.5 versus expectations of -16.0.

The September German flash manufacturing PMI was 53.5 versus consensus of 54.0; the flash services PMI was 52.9 versus 50.0; the flash composite PMI was 53.1 versus 51.7; the September EU flash manufacturing PMI was 52.7 versus 52.6; the flash services PMI was 53.0 versus 51.5; the flash composite PMI was 53.1 versus 51.7; the September UK flash manufacturing PMI was 52.0 versus 51.5; the flash services PMI was 51.7 versus 52.0; the flash composite PMI was 51.7 versus 52.0.

Other

The problem with the level of interest rates versus that of economic growth.

https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-what-now-2/?src=news

August real median household income.

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/09/real-median-household-income-down-relative-to-may

Iran

Overnight news.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/cargo-vessel-struck-unknown-projectile-hormuz-casualties-reported

Inflation

Beware oil’s second strike on inflation.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/beware-oils-second-strike-on-inflation-a07161d3?st=xvMWoB&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

As an example:

https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-average-supertanker-cost-is-1-2-million-per-day-up-from-29900/

Funding trouble in AI land.

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/sb-energy-delays-ipo-funding-worlds-largest-data-center-amid-investor-revolt-public?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI1OTc0Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MDE2Mzk0MiwiZXhwIjoxNzkyNzU1OTQyLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.PxaHtWOB5EDCl7kVBvaeNZbm3htcnGH2ZQDKOT4x2pE

Where intelligence and consciousness have to be separated.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/09/22/where_intelligence_and_consciousness_have_to_be_separated_1207087.html

Do Covid and AI rhyme?

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2026/09/do-covid-and-ai-rhyme/

AI angst.

https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/ai-angst/

Investing

Earnings mean reversion.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/09/22/earnings-mean-reversion-estimates-snap-back

The historic divide between the bulls and the bears signals an earnings slowdown.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-09-22/this-historic-divide-between-bulls-and-bears-signals-a-slowdown?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc5MDA5OTA1MCwiZXhwIjoxNzkwNzAzODUwLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUTFJEMDNLR1pBSjMwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJCMzFCNTRDQTI3MTE0NjAxOUQxMURCN0IxRUM4NTE2MyJ9.u4eKDr5Fzf1poybp1NbsZXZFyBUXnVIR-nfG-ePejWM

The bond market returns to normal.

https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2026/09/what-is-fixed-income-market-telling-us.html

The resiliency of the high yield market.

https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2026/09/the-honey-badger-market/

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

What I am reading today

Another blight on our education system.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-ranked-1-world-math-usa-27th

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

The Morning Call--Goolsbee addresses the supply shortage/demand pull inflation dichotomy

The Morning Call

9/22/26

The Market

Technical

Monday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bitcoin-buying-panic-after-bessent-bullishness-black-gold-breakdown-trump-bad?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI1ODEzIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MDAyMTg1MiwiZXhwIjoxNzkyNjEzODUyLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0._IiX-Q_UGGMyNddzMcVRXhszLEcHUlVLjc-9JGIAtXg

Note: the S&P surged higher, pushing through the upper boundary of a very short term downtrend. Good news of course; and if you think that there is more to come, then the next visible resistance point is the upper boundary of the index’s short term uptrend (~8030). However, the pin action was on a large gap up open, introducing some downside pull. So the breakout isn’t as clear cut as it could otherwise be. Still it was impressive enough that I bought a one half position in TJX.

Monday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

The latest from Goldman’s head of hedge fund trending.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-pasquariello-sees-tricky-footing-ahead-higher-stocks-yields-commodity-prices-year?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI1ODA1Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MDAyMDMzMiwiZXhwIjoxNzkyNjEyMzMyLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.BjKsBHj4cauONm2kbtnwo1DVmy5BMZozavmwI-ylH1U

Update on the Bitcoin technicals.

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/after-billion-dollar-etf-inflow-bitcoin-breakout-outs-108k-sight?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI1ODg3Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MDA4MjM1OCwiZXhwIjoxNzkyNjc0MzU4LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.7foZKb7CDqIVlAbWvXvdLjRInMpleeHz7VSXJXw2fA4

Tuesday morning setup. Futures are flat, having recovered a modest drop after the European open, following yesterday’s strong, positive performance despite energy prices and yields being lower for a second consecutive day. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are fractionally in the green after an advance in tech giants and chipmakers drove the index to a one-month high. In premarket trading, semis are down ~60bp after a blistering 5-day run that added 11.2%. Memory names are weaker as Mag7 and Software remain bid. Alibaba ADRs (BABA) gain 3% as the company is rolling out what it calls China’s most powerful AI chip, an accelerator to compete with Nvidia Corp. Brent crude erased gains of as much as 2% to fall toward $98 a barrel. The reversal came after Japan’s Kyodo News Agency reported that Iran has proposed to reopen Hormuz within seven days if the US blockade is lifted. While Iran has since denied this report, a separate report that Saudis may restart the East-West pipeline helped sentiment. Treasury yields turned lower, with the 10-year rate down two basis points to 4.93%. The dollar barely budged while the entire commodity complex is lower, though Base Metals are a bid. These moves likely reflect growing optimism around a diplomatic solution in the Middle East and improved US / China relations, which combined will support AI and lower energy prices, and potentially lower tariff rates. Today’s macro data focus is on ADP’s weekly number, regional Fed activity indicators, and another Fed speaker. Looking ahead, highlights include UN Meetings: UN General Debate including Trump, Macron, Burnham; Trump-Zelensky meeting; Trump-Burnham meeting; Trump-Gulf Leaders meeting.

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

International

The September UK industrial trends orders index was -9 versus consensus of -34.

Other

Gold moving out of the US is not a big deal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/09/18/america-doesnt-need-worlds-gold/

Rising Q3 growth expectations.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economy-picks-up-in-q3-as-rising-rates-threaten-momentum/

The inflationary expansion continues.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4947978-weekly-indicators-the-inflationary-expansion-continues

Iran

Overnight news.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/brent-tumbles-below-100-after-report-says-iran-offers-reopen-hormuz-chokepoint

US attempts to shut down the Iranian airline industry.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/bessent-declares-all-iran-airlines-be-shut-down-around-world-wednesday

Monetary Policy

The Fed is fighting the wrong war.

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/6095830-fed-interest-rate-hike/

Counterpoint.

https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/this-is-still-a-dovish-fed/

Where we should be based on the Taylor Rule.

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/09/where-should-we-be-taylor-rule-wise

Fed’s Goolsbee addresses the supply shortage/demand pull inflation dichotomy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-21/fed-s-goolsbee-says-road-to-2-inflation-may-not-be-painless?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy

When the leaders in AI all agree, read the fine print.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/09/21/when_the_three_most_powerful_men_in_ai_agree_read_the_fine_print_1207085.html

Keep digging says the shovel salesman.

https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/keep-digging-says-shovel-salesman?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

Investing

The latest from Morgan Stanley.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanleys-mike-wilson-warns-higher-yields-and-energy-prices-could-spark-10-market?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI1ODQ2Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc5MDA4MDg3NywiZXhwIjoxNzkyNjcyODc3LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.O_kgZVNiE9jpBi5uhD0qj45Ce0KuJYa2UePYdHoIR6E

Playing the long game.

https://smeadcap.com/missives/no-country-for-old-or-young-men/?utm_campaign=Missives&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=439346167&utm_content=439149107&utm_source=hs_email

What does Dow 100,000 mean?

https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/friends-dont-let-friends-wear-dow?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

Research indicates that you will take more risk after a loss.

https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-research-says-you-will-take-more-risk-after-a-loss-here-is-what-it-costs

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

What I am reading today

Quote of the day.

https://cafehayek.com/2026/09/quotation-of-the-day-5507.html

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Thursday, September 24, 2026

The Morning Call---Private credits soft defaults

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

The Morning Call---Earnings mean reversion

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

The Morning Call--Goolsbee addresses the supply shortage/demand pull inflation dichotomy

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