The Morning Call---Ukraine energy truce in shambles

 

The Morning Call

 

9/15/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-clarity-booms-ai-dooms-banks-gloom-oil-zooms-fed-looms?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI1MDA1Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4OTQxODA2OCwiZXhwIjoxNzkyMDEwMDY4LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.ByvxJqu_-4cFeV9oIBMVKdBu2F6KIgMhIKk--sbs4cY

 

                        Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from JP Morgan.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-traders-maintain-tactically-neutralcautious-positioning-see-5-scenarios-facing-fed?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI0OTkxIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4OTQxNjQ2NywiZXhwIjoxNzkyMDA4NDY3LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.7VDgBwX2Eapv4yY4bbK5yFLEKT94rXzov6T6Bn1gjns

 

 

            The latest from Goldman.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2026-unmatched-macromarket-decoupling-goldmans-top-quant-trader-says-americans-are-under?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI0ODgzIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4OTQxNzExMSwiZXhwIjoxNzkyMDA5MTExLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.0-WiDeVTHkOkmnLITHSDDeh4yD8KDcJmVvZPLyoF0V8

 

 

            Long Treasury yields spike.

                        https://wolfstreet.com/2026/09/12/long-term-treasury-yields-spike-1-to-7-year-yields-explode-mortgage-rates-hit-7-12-bond-market-gets-spooked/

 

            And gold slides.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/gold-slides-after-the-meeting-that-did-not-happen-1789405681

 

Tuesday morning setup. Futures are lower - but well off session lows thanks to some well-time oil sell orders just before US traders walked into work - as bond yields continue to make new highs, with both Nasdaq and Russell lagging the S&P which feels like more de-risking into tomorrow's Fed release. AS of 8:15am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% amid premarket weakness in Mag7 with GOOG / META / MSFT all down at least 90bp but NVDA in the green helping Semis outperform on the move lower. Memory / Korea names are bid despite Kospi closing lower. Energy, Utils, and pockets of Healthcare are higher with the other sectors weaker pre-market. The yield curve is bear steepening as yields continue to march higher in response to oil/energy and growth. The 10Y rose as high as 5.04% before retracing back to around 5.0% USD is stronger. Crude is +2% as the UKR / RU détente on striking energy infra fails to materialize and growing chatter of UK aiding Saudis in fighting the Houthis. Ags are mixed and Metals are weaker, with Base outperforming Precious. Today’s macro data focus is on weekly ADP and Empire Mfg.

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The September NY Fed manufacturing index was 7.6 versus consensus of 14.7.

 

                        International

 

The July EU trade balance was +E14.2 billion versus predictions of +E14.4 billion; the September economic sentiment index was 25.8 versus 39.9.

 

The July UK unemployment rate was 4.9% versus forecasts of 5.0%; the July (3mo/Y) average earnings were up 3.9%, in line.

 

August YoY Chinese industrial production rose 5.2% versus expectations of 3.8%; August YoY retail sales were up 0.4% versus +0.8%; the August unemployment rate was 5.3% versus 5.0%.

 

August German PPI was up 0.9% versus estimates of +0.1%; the September economic sentiment index was 34.7 versus 37.0; the September current conditions index was -47.1 versus -52.0.

 

                        Other

 

 

            Overnight News

 

              Ukraine energy truce in shambles.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/energy-truce-shambles-ukraine-strikes-russian-refinery-despite-trumps-warning-amid-global

 

            Iran

 

              The latest headlines.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/houthis-unleash-major-missile-barrage-saudi-arabias-sprawling-king-khalid-air-base

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Energy prices are shredding central bank interest rate policies.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-09-14/this-energy-shock-is-shredding-central-banks-rates-playbook?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy

 

 

              The bond market is now the ‘House’.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-market-house?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI0OTk5Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4OTQxNTk5OCwiZXhwIjoxNzkyMDA3OTk4LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.e_4gA4mjuza1n6oxSM_GbOb60LViz5Ssrp1Zxw32im8

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

             Bessent’s folly.

                  https://nypost.com/2026/09/12/business/scott-bessents-attempts-to-suppress-interest-rates-could-spark-a-recession/

 

              The US debt trap: a crisis without a calendar.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/09/14/us-debt-trap-crisis-without-calendar

           

            AI

           

              Regulating AI.

 

                Pro:

 

                                https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/12/opinion/ai-tech-apocalypse-silicon-valley.html?unlocked_article_code=1.BFE.qIyF.O5XCgLoDKQW_&smid=url-share

 

                https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier

 

                Con:

 

                https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/09/14/ai_pauses_will_regulate_the_us_into_second_place_1205787.html

 

                https://reason.com/2026/09/11/ai-doom-is-misguided-not-a-psyop/

 

                https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-great-ai-slowdown-d5578546?st=jyFxrF&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

 

              Did AI just become a political issue?

                          https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/ai-just-became-a-massive-midterm?r=1ng8jx&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

 

 

            The Financial System

 

              A cautionary note.

              https://www.axios.com/2026/09/14/apollo-book-insurance-banking

 

            Tariffs

 

              Canada looks for other options.

              https://www.reuters.com/business/carney-locked-us-trade-war-pitches-canada-global-investment-titans-2026-09-14/

 

     Investing

 

            The AI trade just turned inside out.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/semis-puked-software-exploded-ai-trade-just-turned-inside-out?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI1MDg4Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4OTQ3Njg5OSwiZXhwIjoxNzkyMDY4ODk5LCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.PO8ztkH2k0XxwV6CWXTXW2_Jr3nKaqA2NeAod99-OG0

 

 

            Update on valuations.

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/11/market-valuation-is-the-market-still-overvalued

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/11/qratio-market-valuation-august-2026

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/11/market-valuation-regression-trend-sp500-august-2026

 

                Treasury yield premium surges.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/treasury-yield-premium-surges-amid-inflation-and-debt-worries/

               

                Chine buying more gold than officially reported.

https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/china-buying-twice-more-gold-officially-reported-amid-surge-central-bank-purchases?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTI1MDUyIiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4OTQ3NzQzMSwiZXhwIjoxNzkyMDY5NDMxLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.c2c9GNW-aPq041wCZBUp7kacdQHmX-3sPhmIvf_BDJo

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.