The Morning Call
9/25/26
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Thursday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Deteriorating
breadth.
Never short a dull
market.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/never-short-a-dull-market/
Friday morning set
up: US futures erased earlier losses and are trading at session highs led by
tech, as bonds steadied (with the 10Y at multi-decade highs of 5.17%) after
oil’s latest rally lost steam, helping US stocks to extend gains for the week.
As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.4% setting up the benchmark to post
its first weekly advance in three; Nasdaq futures gain 0.7% with
chipmakers and memory storage names bouncing and Mag 7 stocks mostly
higher, led by NVDA (+0.7%) and TSLA (+0.8%). Overnight, focus remains on the
improved US-Iran rhetoric since noon yesterday: Iran proposed a 7-day plan to
end the war (NYT), and the president says Tehran wants a deal with the US
before the midterm elections (NBS). However, the reactions from the oil market were
fairly modest, suggesting the market is still pricing a meaningful geopolitical
premium; WTI fell 1.8% to $92.98. Bond yields fell 2-3bp at the front end;
precious metals are higher, and ags are lower. US economic data
slate includes August durable goods orders (8:30 a.m.), and the September
University of Michigan sentiment (10 a.m.).
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
August durable
goods orders were flat versus expectations of down 0.4%; ex transportation, they were up 0.3% versus up 0.6%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-core-durable-goods-orders-rise-17th-straight-month-august
August new home sales
rose 6.4% versus estimates of +3.2%.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/09/august-new-home-sales-consistent-with.html
The
September Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was reported at 20 versus
projections of 9.
International
The September UK
consumer confidence index was -13 versus consensus of -16.
The October German
consumer confidence index was -30.6 versus predictions of -27.4.
Other
Median new home prices per square foot.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/09/median-new-home-sale-prices-per-square.html
The
consumer is in great shape.
The
Consumer Is Clearly in Good Shape - Wealth Management - Carson Group
Despite a lousy housing market.
The Trump Reversal Index.
Iran
Overnight news.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-proposes-7-day-roadmap-end-war-which-mimics-june-mou
China
Overnight news.
Monetary
Policy
Fed on track for another rate hike in October.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/fed-on-track-for-second-rate-hike-just-ahead-of-elections/
Fiscal
Policy
The federal debt chartbook.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/a-us-federal-budget-chartbook
AI
The AI buildout is the biggest economic bet in
US history.
Oracle’s ‘Project Jupiter’ declares force
majeure.
Tariffs
Unfathomable economic ignorance.
https://reason.com/2026/09/18/no-cutting-off-trade-with-europe-would-not-make-america-wealthier/
The
Financial System
Rich people fleeing private credit haven’t
learned their lesson.
Investing
Math eventually
wins.
Speaking
of math, what percentage of current profit margins are mean reverting?
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/09/24/whats-holding-record-margins
Who are the best
Market forecasters?
https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/who-forecasts-how
The bonkers ETF
market.
https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-basics/bonkers-etf-market-zine-edition
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
American
hubris.
US using lasers
to down drones.
https://nypost.com/2026/09/24/us-news/us-military-spending-500m-on-war-ready-laser-weapons-experts/
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