The Morning Call
9/9/26
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Tuesday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
S&P starting
its historic September pattern.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/back-to-work-and-back-in-the-red-1788894354
Support for gold.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/look-beyond-rates-to-golds-long-term-support-1788889212
Wednesday morning
setup: US equity futures are lower as oil continues its ascent, pushing Brent
above $100 for the first time since July 24 and pushing 10Y yields to 4.81%. As
of 8:15am, S&P futures are trading at session lows, down 0.5% and after
erasing early gains, echoing a rally in Asian technology shares that lost
momentum as the session progressed. Nasdaq futures are down 0.6% as Mag 7s
trade mixed premarket: META +5% after saying early Muse AI usage has “blown way
past our projections” with users engaging 10x more than its test
cohorts, while AMZN -0.4%. The Treasury Department is expected to announce
on Wednesday the size of the next day’s operation to repurchase outstanding
10-year to 20-year securities. Treasury 10-year yields trade above 4.81%,
rising by 3bps. USD extended losses, trading near a 7 month low. The yen
extends gains to trade near 153.30 per dollar, outperforming its G-10 peers.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent challenged traders to test his resolve on
boosting the Japanese currency. Hedge funds are betting the yen will strengthen
beyond 150 by year-end. Commodities were mostly higher with WTI surging above
$95 and Brent topping $100 (with Shanghai oil trading almost $10 higher)
for the first time since July 24 after the US struck Iranian tankers near the
Kharg Island export hub and in the Gulf of Oman. Tehran responded by firing
missiles at Jordan and warning ships in the Persian Gulf. Precious metals and
ags are all higher. US economic data slate includes weekly ADP employment
change at 8:15am. Fed speaker slate is blank during Sept. 5-17 external
communications blackout period around the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
fell 2.7% while purchase applications were flat.
International
Q2 Japanese QoQ
capital expenditures fell 0.9% versus consensus of -0.8%; Q2 QoQ private consumption
was flat, in line; July YoY average earnings were up 4.7% versus consensus of
+3.9%; August YoY machine tool orders rose 64.7% versus +43.0%.
August Chinese CPI
was up 0.4% versus predictions of +0.3%; August YoY PPI was up 3.8% versus +3.7%.
Other
A closer look at the manufacturing ‘boom’.
White House nowcasts
versus everybody else.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/09/the-blackest-black-box-mid-session-review-ever
A deep dive into Friday’s nonfarm payroll
report.
The economy is
heating up; so are the headwinds.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-economy-appears-to-be-heating-up-so-are-the-headwinds/
Consumer credit balances hit new all-time
high.
Iran
Overnight news.
Monetary
Policy
The case for no rate hike.
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2026/09/jobs-growth-update-modest-improvement.html
Counterpoint.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/data-shows-the-economy-is-clearly-running-hot/
The Fed’s credibility rests on resisting
politics.
Tariffs
The liberation of the rest of the world from
trade with the US.
https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/2026-08/briefing-paper-205-update-2.pdf
AI
The extraordinary assumption behind AI.
The
coming problem in AI debt financing.
Investing
The changing
stock/bond relationship.
https://www.axios.com/2026/09/04/stocks-bonds-yields-correlation
The latest from
John Hussman.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/09/08/road-up-road-down-same-road
What could bring
stocks down?
Looking ahead to
third quarter earnings.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/looking-ahead-to-the-q3-earnings-season-what-to-expect-1788583751
Global bond yields
reflect inflationary concerns.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/global-bond-yields-fret-inflation-deficits-1788426577
More investing
myths dismantled.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/more-investing-myths-dismantled
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
In
praise of Rick Santelli.
(3)
Thank You Rick Santelli, You Fucking Legend
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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