The Morning Call
9/16/26
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the charts.
Note: the S&P
closed back below its former all-time high and its 50 DMA (now support; if it
remains there through the close today, it will revert to resistance). Of course, this is Fed day and anything could
happen. So we need to withhold any judgement about the implications of the
above until the smoke clears on the FOMC’s decision.
Tuesday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Energy is running the
tape.
The latest from
Goldman.
AI rotation.
Wednesday morning
setup. Futures are higher into Fed Day where consensus is for a 25bp hike, the
first since July 2023, with unknown levels of communication, and the question
is what the dot plot shows (see
preview here). S&P 500 futures are up by 0.3%, finding relief
after days of selling as traders wait Kevin Warsh to deliver an expected
interest-rate hike that will help ease fears that inflation may spiral. Nasdaq
futures are up 0.6%, with Intel shares jumping 3% in pre-market trading on a
report it’s in talks with Korea’s SK Hynix on making memory chips in the US;
Software is lower; cyclicals are outperforming defensives as the AI theme is
pushing both Tech and Industrials higher. As JPM notes, the market
looks to climb the latest Wall of Worry across Fed, AI, and Iran-induced energy
inflation. Bond yields are down 2-3bp with USD flat. Commodities are higher
led by Metals (Precious over Base) and Ags while crude/fuels are seeing some
profit-taking (don't expect it to last). US economic data
slate includes September New York Fed services business activity, August
retail sales and import/export price indexes (8:30 a.m.), July business
inventories and September NAHB housing market index (10am) and July TIC flows
(4pm).
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications dropped 4.1% while purchase applications were down 1.0%.
Month to date
retail chain sore sales rose 8.5% versus +8.3% in the prior week.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/09/is-real-consumer-spending-still-short.html
International
July EU industrial production declined 0.1%
versus estimates of -2%.
July Japanese
machine orders were down 3.7% versus projections of -2.8%; the July trade balance
was -Y1105.6 billion versus -Y1052.6 billion.
August UK CPI came
in at +0.5%, in line; core CPI was +0.3%. also in line.
Other
Monetary
Policy
The case for raising rates is not as strong
as the odds suggest.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-house/?src=news
Part two.
Damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/inflation-signals-clash-ahead-of-high-stakes-fed-decision/
Why Warsh needs to
provide more clarity.
Inflation
Oil executives say the great fuel crisis is
here.
US manufacturers
hit fresh surge in supply chain cost inflation.
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/4103d8bb-b139-4067-a19c-df1c34239b30
AI
IPO’s of doom.
AI
leaders cunning plan.
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/ai-leaders-cunning-plan-exposed
Investing
Managing risk.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/09/15/winning-long-game-chapter-5
Is a higher
earnings bar harder to clear?
Outlook for
dividends in September.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/09/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html
AI infrastructure
takes a collective tumble.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/ai-infrastructure-takes-a-collective-tumble-1789491034
Bond yields could
come down as rapidly as they have risen.
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