The Morning Call
9/2/26
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Tuesday
in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The case for why
this September could be different.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/why-the-worst-month-of-the-year-likely-wont-bring-rain/
Increasing Market
dispersion.
https://www.acadian-asset.com/investment-insights/owenomics/crazy-days-in-the-stock-market
Wednesday morning
setup: US equity futures are lower with Tech underperforming as oil prices /
bond yields move higher (although off session highs), both in response to an
acceleration in "kinetic hostilities" in the Middle East. As of
8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.1%, off session lows, while Nasdaq
futures rise 0.4% after Dell shares jumped after the company boosted its
annual sales forecast by $25 billion. In premarket trading, Semis / Memory are
weaker and AVGO is -53bp with earnings after the Close today. Mag7 are mostly
lower as are Software names with Hardware buoyed by earnings. Defensives and
Energy gain while Cyclicals drop. According to JPM's Market Intel team,
which on Monday turned Neutral on stocks (from Bullish), equities will continue
to struggle until crude / rates stabilize. Europe’s Stoxx
600 retreated 0.7%, while Asian stocks fell the most in two weeks. WTI
trades around $90/bbl as the yield curve steepens, having erased gains
from Bessent’s "Treasury Twist". The Dollar is also higher
as the Debasement trade continues to struggle. Commodities are mostly lower
with Energy the lone bright spot and Ags underperforming Metals; keep an eye on
gold to see if $4,300 acts as support. Today’s macro data focus is on the
August ADP employment change (8:15am) and July factory orders (10am). Fed
calendar is blank apart from Beige Book release at 2pm
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications rose 0.8% while purchase applications were up 2.2%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales grew 9.6% versus 9.1% in the prior week.
July job openings
(JOLTS) totaled 7.27 million versus estimates of 7.3 million.
July construction
spending fell 0.5% versus predictions of 0.0%.
The August manufacturing
PMI came in at 53.9 versus consensus of 53.2.
The August ISM
manufacturing index was 54.6 versus expectations of 55.2.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/09/august-manufacturing-less-good-july.html
The August ADP
private payrolls report showed an increase in jobs of 38,000 versus forecasts
of 47,000.
The September
small business optimism index was 45.6 versus projections of 46.2.
International
Other
July median household income.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/09/median-household-income-in-july-2026.html
Seven graphs on the financial system.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/08/seven-graphs-for-the-financial-system
China declines to sign G20 joint communique.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bessent-blame-china-derailing-g20-joint-communique
Iran
Overnight news.
Fiscal
Policy
If congress reforms social security, it will
simply spend the savings elsewhere.
AI
Ten predictions on the future of AI.
https://www.honest-broker.com/p/10-brutally-honest-predictions-on
The
Financial System
The
Financial Stability Board warns of multiple threats to the global financial system.
Trillion dollar dislocation
hiding in the credit markets.
The risk of financial repression is rising.
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/edbe13cb-7e44-45ed-9ddb-8b0057a03506
Tariffs
Trump’s trade war with Canada is stupid.
https://reason.com/2026/08/31/trumps-trade-war-with-canada-is-costly-absurd-and-unfunny/
Investing
Liquidity is shrinking.
Why crashes, timing and valuations matter.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/09/01/crashes-timing-valuations-matter
Bonds aren’t doing
their job.
https://trendlabs.com/bonds-arent-doing-their-job/
In six months, rates
will be lower.
https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/think-six-months-ahead
Counterpoint.
Why bond yields
continue to rise.
Consumer stocks
cracking.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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