The Morning Call--Blow out nonfarm payrolls report

 

The Morning Call

 

9/4/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everything-rips-rate-hike-odds-dip-dovish-waller-dumping-dollar-ahead-payrolls?gift=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJuaWQiOiIxMTIzODQ5Iiwic2VuZGVyVWlkIjoiUUhnc3BaZVVFS2E3RHhXM216eFlKbjhaWEFoMiIsImlhdCI6MTc4ODQ2NzA2MywiZXhwIjoxNzkxMDU5MDYzLCJhdWQiOiJ6aC1naWZ0In0.Jb_7sbGqv05DAFINvwf3vdO3sRufgHDiKYFANAab6As

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

Friday morning setup. US futures are choppy, trading between unchanged and modestly higher, ahead of today's jobs report which sees a modest increase in August payrolls (but the risk is for another negative print, see our preview here). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are flat and Nasdaq futures gain 0.5% as Mag 7 stocks trade mixed premarket, with NVDA (+1.4%) and AMZN (+0.7%) leading and TSLA (-2.1%) lagging. Bond yields are steady as traders wait to see whether Friday’s payrolls report will offer the Fed enough justification to hold off on an interest-rate hike in September. The USD is 20bp higher as the yen drops after yesterday's surge. Commodities are mixed: oil fell, while base metals and Ags are both higher. Overnight, macro headlines were largely muted following yesterday’s bond market rally after Waller’s comments. All eyes are on the 8:30am ET NFP release (see our preview here), but investors are increasingly more focused on next week’s CPI than the payroll number, given Warsh’s assessment of the labor market and Waller’s comments yesterday.

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The August services PMI was reported at 56.5 versus estimates of 56.8; the August composite PMI was 56.0, in line.

 

The August ISM services index was 55.4 versus expectations of 54.3.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/09/the-economically-weighted-ism-indexes.html

 

August nonfarm payrolls grew 162,000 versus consensus of 56,000 (in this case, good news is bad news); average hourly earnings were up 0.3%, in line.

                                  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/labor-shock-us-adds-162k-jobs-august-4-sigma-beat-and-above-highest-forecast

 

                        International

 

July Japanese household spending was up 0.5% versus projections of +0.6%.

 

July German factory orders rose 2.5% versus estimates of +0.3%; the August construction PMI was 48.7 versus 42.0.

 

July EU retail sales fell 0.6% versus predictions of +0.3%; the August construction PMI was 43.0 versus 44.0.

 

The August UK construction PMI was 44.9 versus estimates of 45.5.

 

                        Other

 

                          New home affordability improves.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/09/new-home-affordability-improves-as.html

 

            AI

 

              OpenAI is sinking fast.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/09/openai-sam-altman-ipo-lightcap-simo-dresser-voss-oracle-ipo-zitron-paramount.html

 

              Don’t blame Chinese ‘psycops’ for data center angst.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/09/03/dont_blame_chinese_psyops_for_data_center_angst_1204007.html

 

              How AI might impact the labor market and interest rates.

              https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/how-ai-may-impact-the-labor-market-and-interest-rates/

 

     Investing

 

            Should you buy TIPS?

                        https://www.morningstar.com/funds/tips-look-tempting-should-you-buy?utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=linkshare&utm_source=link

 

                        Risks fueling dollar selloff.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-03/world-s-unusually-high-dollar-exposure-risks-fueling-selloff?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc4ODQ1NjYwOSwiZXhwIjoxNzg5MDYxNDA5LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUSllFNVhLSzNOWUMwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJCMzFCNTRDQTI3MTE0NjAxOUQxMURCN0IxRUM4NTE2MyJ9.NiKYYdPOpoHjkml3ci5M-c1BSRqSj9aT4u_ZsvUB1V0

 

 

                        Central banks piled into gold in July.

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/central-banks-piled-in-more-gold-in-july-1788452755

 

                        The gold run isn’t done yet.

            https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/2337f63d-3b5c-403a-9116-ccfbc43a3a87

 

    News (not buy recommendations) on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

            T. Rowe Price

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/09/03/goldman-victory-t-rowe-price-expand-etf-acquisitions

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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