Thursday, October 10, 2024

The Morning Call--The mispricing of recession

 

The Morning Call

 

10/10/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-yields-dollar-china-down-hawkish-minutes-hit-ahead-cpi

 

            Market seasonality and gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/stocks-silent-surge

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/santa-sees-strong-seasonality

           

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 258,000 versus estimates of 230,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-exploded-13-month-highs-last-week

 

September CPI came in at +0.2% versus projections of +0.1%; core CPI was +0.3% versus +0.2%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/consumer-prices-surge-new-record-high

 

                                  Can  you say stagflation?

 

                        International

 

September Japanese PPI was unchanged from August versus forecasts of down 0.3%.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Latest FOMC minutes show Fed more divided on size of rate cuts.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-20

 

            Recession

 

              Home buyers strike.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/07/people-are-now-on-buyers-strike-because-home-prices-are-too-high-fannie-mae/

 

              Rising productivity shows economy remains resilient.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/10/09/economy-resilient-rising-productivity

 

              More support for a ‘no recession’ scenario.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/revised-q3-gdp-nowcast-continues-to-indicate-solid-us-growth/

 

              Germany cuts 2024 GDP growth estimate.

              https://www.ft.com/content/04fd5114-976d-4a6f-bf5a-176a0671757b

 

              The mispricing of recession and a soft landing.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-back-agreement-low-recession-risks

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Excerpt from Woodward’s new book.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/whats-really-outrageous-about-woodwards-new-book

           

     Bottom line

 

            Ed Yardini cautious on China.

            Larry & Ray’s Not-So Excellent Adventure in China is Over (yardeniquicktakes.com)

 

            Dealing with Market noise.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2024/10/08/the-noise-factory/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Thoughts on the distribution of wealth.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/why-wealth-inequality-isnt-much-of-a-thing

 

            The Salem witch trials.

            Everything you need to know about the Salem witch trials (nationalgeographic.com)

 

            The benefits of fasting.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/fasting-activates-cell-repair-mechanism-reverses-disease

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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