Wednesday, October 30, 2024

The Morning Call---Is the prospect for another rate cut fading?

 

The Morning Call

 

10/30/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/trump-trade-goes-turbo-bitcoin-bullion-hit-record-highs-tech-tsy-yields-rise

 

            Key market indicators for November.

            Key Market Indicators for November 2024 - RIA

 

            Earnings reports are increasing price volatility.

            https://www.ft.com/content/f87e5d13-0801-4951-b69e-8b8648a099ce

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 0.1% while purchase applications rose 5.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior week.

 

The August Case Shiller home price index fell 0.3% versus forecasts of -0.1%.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/10/case-shiller-national-house-price-index_29.html

 

 September job openings (JOLTS) totaled 7.4 million versus predictions of 7.9 million.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/10/bls-job-openings-little-unchanged-at-74.html

 

Q3 advanced GDP growth was 2.8% versus consensus of 3.0%; the Q3 advanced PCE price index was 1.8% versus 2.7%; the Q3 advanced core PCE was 2.2% versus 2.1%; Q3 advanced real consumer spending was 3.7% versus 3.0%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-q3-gdp-growth-disappoints

 

October ADP private payrolls grew 233,000 versus expectations of 115,000.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/october-surprise-adp-employment-report-signals-six-sigma-beat-week-elections

 

The October consumer confidence index was reported at 108.7 versus estimates of 99.5.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/10/confidence-surprises-on-the-upside

 

                        International

 

Q3 EU flash GDP growth was +0.4% versus projections of +0.2%; the October economic sentiment index came in at 95.6 versus 96.3; the October industrial sentiment index was -13.0 versus -10.5; the October services sentiment index was 7.1 versus 6.6; the October consumer confidence index was -12.5, in line.

 

Q3 German flash GDP increased 0.2% versus forecasts of -0.1%; the October unemployment rate was 6.1%, in line.

 

The October Japanese consumer confidence index was 36.2 versus predictions of 37.0.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Is the prospect for another rate cut fading?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-prospect-for-another-fed-rate-cut-fading/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump’s tariffs would rock global trade.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/28/us/politics/trumps-tariffs-global-trade.html

 

            The Election

 

              Four history lessons on how the market will react in this election.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/4-history-lessons-how-market-will-react-election

 

    Bottom line.

 

            Rose colored glasses?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-rose-colored-glasses/?src=news

 

            Keep politics out of your portfolio.

            https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/the-growing-partisan-divide-in-us

 

            In praise of master limited partnerships.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/10/29/stop-me

 

            Weird things are happening in the bond market.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-29/weird-things-are-happening-in-the-bond-market?srnd=homepage-americas

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) declares $1.64/share quarterly dividend, 5.8% increase from prior dividend of $1.55.

 

Illinois Tool Works Inc. press release (NYSE:ITW): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.65 beats by $0.12.

Revenue of $4B (-1 Y/Y) misses by $20M.

 

Automatic Data Processing press release (NASDAQ:ADP): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.33 beats by $0.12.

Revenue of $4.8B (+6.7% Y/Y) beats by $30M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The golden boy of ancient Rome.

            Who killed Germanicus, the golden boy of ancient Rome?

 

            Big lies and little progress---another ruling class f**kup. I note that this article

comes from a liberal website.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/10/big-lies-and-little-progress-biden-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivans-foreign-policy-for-the-middle-class.html

 

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment