The Monring Call---Have we slayed the inflation dragon?

 

The Morning Call

 

10/15/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-big-tech-rip-china-qe-hope-cash-bonds-closed

 

            Golden ties for gold fans.

            https://www.ft.com/content/945ee113-abeb-456c-ac01-751b3a21678f

 

            Worries about inflation.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/biggest-inflation-swap-surge-march-raises-new-concerns

 

            Why is the VIX so high?

            https://sherwood.news/markets/presidential-election-vix-fear-gauge-index-vs-stock-market-performance/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The October NY Fed manufacturing index came in at -11.9 versus forecasts of +3.8.

 

                        International

 

August Japanese industrial production was down 3.3%, in line; August capacity utilization was down 5.3% versus -1.3%.

 

August UK average earnings were up 3.8%, in line; the August unemployment rate was 4.0% versus 4.1%.

 

August EU industrial production was up 1.8% versus predictions of +1.7%; the October economic sentiment index was 20.1 versus 16.9.

 

September German PPI was -0.3% versus estimates of +0.2%; the October economic sentiment index was 13.1 versus 10.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Hotel occupancy decreased YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/10/hotels-occupancy-rate-decreased-34-year.html

 

                          What the small business survey is telling us.

                          NFIB Survey Poses Risk To Bullish Forecasts - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

                         What the latest GDP report is telling us.

                          GDP Report Continues To Defy Recession Forecasts - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The Fed has a data dependency problem.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-fed-has-a-dependency-problem-that-needs-fixing-cae15c12?mod=economy_lead_pos3

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              A sensible approach to social security reform.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/10/guest-contribution-social-security-reform-between-a-cliff-and-a-hard-place

 

            Inflation

 

              Have we slayed the inflation dragon?

              https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/have-we-slayed-the-inflation-dragon

 

            Recession

 

              What if there is no landing at all?

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/13/what-if-theres-no-landing-at-all-but-flight-at-higher-speed-and-altitude-than-normal-with-higher-and-rising-inflation/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Tariffs would remake the economy, mostly for the worse.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4925401-trumps-tariffs-would-remake-the-economy-mostly-for-the-worse/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Advice that applies to all of life, not just trading.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/10/why-cant-i-improve-my-trading.html

 

            Winners of the Nobel prize for economics.

            https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/nobel-for-economics-awarded-to-daron-acemoglu-simon-johnson-james-robinson-8ae2c3c2?mod=economy_lead_story

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.