The Morning Call
10/25/24
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Buying could get
much bigger.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/big-buying-could-get-much-bigger
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
September durable
goods orders fell 0.8% versus projections of -1.0%; ex transportation, they
were up 0.4% versus -0.1%.
September new home sales rose 4.1% versus
consensus of -2.2%.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/10/new-home-sales-increase-to-738000_24.html
The October Kansas
City Fed manufacturing index was 0 versus predictions of -16.
The October flash
manufacturing PMI was 47.8 versus forecasts of 47.7; the October flash services
PMI was 55.3 versus 55.0; the October flash composite PMI was 54.3 versus 54.0.
International
The August
Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 106.9 versus expectations
of 106.7; the October YoY CPI was 1.8% versus 1.7%; ex food and energy, it was
1.8% versus 1.0%.
The October UK consumer
confidence index was -21, in line.
The October German
business climate index was 86.5 versus estimates of 85.6; the October current
conditions index was 85.7 versus 84.4.
Other
Mortgage delinquency rate increased in
September.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/10/ice-mortgage-delinquency-rate-increased.html
Monetary
Policy
Why the negative effects of high interest
rates on corporations have been small.
The future of QT.
Inflation
I like this
discussion on inflation and agree with much that the author says. But what he fails
to say, in my opinion, is that it is the disconnect between government spending
and government income (taxes) that is the precipitating factor aggravating
inflation. Because the Fed had to fund that disparity---which increases the
money supply which means more money chasing fewer goods which spawns inflation
which incites the ‘bond vigilantes.’
https://disciplinefunds.com/2024/10/22/we-need-to-have-a-talk-about-bond-vigilantes/
Is the era of big
price hikes over?
Recession
Eurozone economic activity stagnates.
Tariffs
The economic risks of tariffs.
Bottom line
Where the risks
are.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-markets-bogeyman-once-again-move
Here is another argument
for lower equity returns over the next ten years,
Lower
Forward Returns Are A High Probability Event - RIA
Bonds face double
whammy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-bulls-face-risk-double-whammy-election-looms
BRICS summit puts
focus on dethroning the dollar.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Friday
morning humor.
9
Ways Trump Is Exactly Like Hitler | Babylon Bee
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