The Morning Call--Powell is too dovish

 

The Morning Call

 

10/11/24

 

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stagflation-signal-stalls-stocks

 

            Signals persist for risk-on sentiment.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/mixed-signals-persist-for-risk-on-sentiment-outlook/

 

            The rally is broadening.

            https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/the-rally-is-broadening

 

            Elevated volatility.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/despite-record-sp-highs-top-goldman-trader-warns-anxiety-extremely-elevated

 

            Stunning demand for 30 year Treasury.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stunning-foreign-demand-strongest-30-year-auction-record

 

            Is the dollar’s decline over?

            https://www.ft.com/content/e24b219f-f26a-4341-b82d-f67485873712

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

August UK GDP growth was 0.2%, in line; August industrial production was up 0.5% versus +0.2%; August YoY construction output was +0.3% versus -0.3%; the August trade balance was -L0.96 billion versus -L6.7 billion.

 

September German CPI was unchanged, in line.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Powell is too dovish.

              Powell Is Too Dovish (yardeniquicktakes.com)

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Fiscal fakery.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-10/michael-bloomberg-trump-harris-tax-plans-are-dishonest-to-voters?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true

 

 

            Inflation

 

              Measures of inflation.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/10/yoy-measures-of-inflation-services.html

 

              The Market is not positioned for inflation.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-not-positioned-unwatched-inflation-pot-boil-over

 

            Recession

 

              Real economic income has fallen over the last four years.

              https://brownstone.org/articles/recession-since-2022-us-economic-income-and-output-have-fallen-overall-for-four-years/

 

              RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/10/10/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump’s tariff proposal will make us all poorer.

              https://reason.com/2024/10/09/trumps-destructive-tariff-proposals-will-make-us-all-poorer/

 

              Less stick, more carrot.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/10/10/trade-policy-fewer-carrots-more-sticks

 

    Bottom line

 

            More on valuations.

            https://disciplinefunds.com/2024/10/09/chart-of-the-week-high-valuations-good-or-bad/

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) declared $0.98/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

• Fastenal press release (NASDAQ:FAST): Q3 GAAP EPS of $0.52 beats by $0.01.
• Revenue of $1.91B (+3.5% Y/Y) beats by $10M.

 

• Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) declares $0.39/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

• BlackRock, Inc. press release (NYSE:BLK): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $11.46 beats by $1.14.
• Revenue of $5.19B (+14.8% Y/Y) beats by $270M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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