The Morning Call---Did the Fed declare the war on inflation over prematurely?

 

The Morning Call

 

10/17/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-bitcoin-dollar-surge-ahead-retail-sales-markets-very-convinced-trump-victory

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 241,000 versus predictions of 260,000.

 

September retail sales were up 0.4% versus estimates of up 0.3%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-cuts-rates-expected-disinflation-well-track-keeps-guidance-unchanged

 

The October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 10.3 versus expectations of 3.0.

 

                        International

 

The August EU trade balance was E4.6 billion versus consensus of E17.8 billion; the September CPI was down 0.1%, in line.

 

The September Japanese trade balance was Y-294.3 billion versus projections of Y-237.6 billion.

 

                        Other

 

                          September median household income.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/10/september-real-median-household-income-estimated

 

                          A buyers strike in housing.

   https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/15/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-sept-update-prices-drop-in-26-of-28-big-metros-even-san-diego-los-angeles/

 

                          Tracking the business cycle.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/tracking-the-current-us-business-cycle-in-four-charts/

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Did the Fed declare the war on inflation over prematurely?

              https://www.ft.com/content/7a00f62a-66e0-4af2-b86f-9e888188acf2

 

              ECB cuts rates again---as expected.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-cuts-rates-expected-disinflation-well-track-keeps-guidance-unchanged

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump continues his cluelessness about tariffs.

              https://cafehayek.com/2024/10/trump-continues-to-reveal-his-witlessness-about-trade.html

 

    Bottom line

 

            The latest from Richard Bernstein.

            https://caia.org/blog/2024/10/11/what-does-once-generation-investment-opportunity-look-llke

 

            The latest from Jeremy Siegel.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/10/16/stock-surge-mixed-economic-data

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW) declares $0.715/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Thursday morning humor.

                        https://babylonbee.com/news/think-christopher-columbus-was-a-good-guy-think-again-here-are-the-10-worst-atrocities-he-committed

 

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