The Morning Call--The great wall of debt

 

The Morning Call

 

10/18/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-hits-new-record-high-dollar-bond-yields-soar-good-data-trump-trade

 

            Margin debt up in September.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/10/16/margin-debt-up-2-0-september-highest-level-since-2022

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

September housing starts declined 0.5% versus projections of +1.8%; building permits was down 2.9% versus -0.1%.                

 

September industrial production fell 0.3% versus forecasts of -0.2%; capacity utilization was 77.5% versus 77.8%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-manufacturing-output-plunged-september

 

The October housing index came in at 43 versus predictions of 42.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/10/nahb-builder-confidence-increased-in.html

 

                        International

 

                          August EU YoY construction output fell 2.4% versus estimates of -1.7%.

 

Q3 Chinese GDP was up 0.9% versus expectations of +1.0%; the September unemployment rate was 5.1% versus 5.3%; September YoY industrial production was up 5.4% versus +4.6%; September retail sales were up 3.2% versus +2.5%.

 

                          September Japanese CPI was -0.3% versus consensus of -0.2%.

 

September UK retail sales rose 0.3% versus projections of -0.3%; ex fuel, they were up 0.3% versus -0.3%.

                         

 

                        Other

 

            Fisal Policy

 

              The great wall of debt.

              https://www.ft.com/content/0a1c4332-fbe3-4f49-9a11-007646ad21b1

 

            Recession

 

              Latest nowcasts show GDP on the rise.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/10/wsj-october-survey-gdp-on-the-rise

 

              The economy is hot, hot, hot.

              US Economy Is Hot, Hot, Hot (yardeniquicktakes.com)

 

              More on home purchase demand destruction.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/16/home-purchase-demand-destruction-accelerates-prices-too-high-buyers-strike-deepens-sales-of-existing-homes-head-for-worst-year-since-1995/

 

 

            Tariffs

 

              Tariffs are a terrible idea.

              https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/3191796/donald-trump-tariffs-tax-giveaways-terrible-ideas/

 

 

 

     Bottom line

 

            What to do during periods of Market turbulence.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/10/17/volatility-do-during-turbulence

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Never eat when flying.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-13963679/Nutrition-expert-reveals-NEVER-eat-flying-class.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=social-twitter_mailonline

 

                        New data on carbon dioxide accumulation.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/10/pace-of-carbon-dioxide-accumulation.html

 

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