Wednesday, October 9, 2024

The Morning Call---A new tailwind for the economy (Market)

 

The Morning Call

 

10/9/24

 

 

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/us-mega-cap-tech-spikes-chinas-chunder-drags-down-crude-crypto-gold

 

            Long rates move up after rate cut.

            https://www.axios.com/2024/10/08/fed-long-term-interest-rates

 

            Gold under pressure.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-under-pressure-too-many-goldilongs

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 5.1% while purchase applications were unchanged.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew slightly faster than in the prior week.

 

The August trade balance was -$70.4 billion versus consensus of -$70.6 billion.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/10/tuesday-trade-balance.html

 

                        International

 

The August German trade balance was E22.5 billion versus predictions of E18.4 billion.

 

September YoY Japanese machine tool orders declined 45.1% versus estimates of -1.2%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Wholesale used car prices down in September.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/10/wholesale-used-car-prices-decreased-in.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

               Rebound in money supply is a new tailwind for the economy (Market).

               https://www.capitalspectator.com/rebound-in-money-supply-growth-is-new-tailwind-for-us-economy/

 

           

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Pricing out Trump’s deportation plan.

 

This is the first analysis that I have seen focusing on Trump’s deportation plan. Without seeing more analysis, I am hesitant to take it at face value. I should note that it is from a conservative website.

https://reason.com/2024/10/07/trumps-deportation-plan-would-cost-nearly-1-trillion/

 

The politics of hope.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/10/08/politics-of-limits

 

            Inflation

           

              Home affordability crisis hits 29th month.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/10/new-home-affordability-crisis-enters.html

 

            Recession

 

              Q3 nowcast revised up again.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/10/gdpnow-up-to-3-2-saar

 

            Geopolitics

 

              The sanctions poison pill in Putin’s peace offer.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/10/the-sanctions-poison-pill-in-putins-peace-offer.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            How Howard Marks thinks about risk.

            How Howard Marks Thinks About Risk...And You Should Too - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            The impact of AI.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-impact-of-ai/?src=news

 

            The optimistic case.

            https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/let-us-pause-to-appreciate-the-remarkable

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Why strokes are on the rise and what you can do to prevent them.

            Strokes are on the rise—and these are the reasons why (nationalgeographic.com)

 

 

 

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