The Morning Call
10/9/24
Technical
Tuesday in the charts.
Long rates move up
after rate cut.
https://www.axios.com/2024/10/08/fed-long-term-interest-rates
Gold under
pressure.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-under-pressure-too-many-goldilongs
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
fell 5.1% while purchase applications were unchanged.
Month to date
retail chain store sales grew slightly faster than in the prior week.
The August trade balance
was -$70.4 billion versus consensus of -$70.6 billion.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/10/tuesday-trade-balance.html
International
The August German
trade balance was E22.5 billion versus predictions of E18.4 billion.
September YoY
Japanese machine tool orders declined 45.1% versus estimates of -1.2%.
Other
Wholesale used car prices down in September.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/10/wholesale-used-car-prices-decreased-in.html
Monetary
Policy
Rebound in money supply is a new tailwind for
the economy (Market).
https://www.capitalspectator.com/rebound-in-money-supply-growth-is-new-tailwind-for-us-economy/
Fiscal
Policy
Pricing out Trump’s deportation plan.
This is the first
analysis that I have seen focusing on Trump’s deportation plan. Without seeing
more analysis, I am hesitant to take it at face value. I should note that it is
from a conservative website.
https://reason.com/2024/10/07/trumps-deportation-plan-would-cost-nearly-1-trillion/
The politics of
hope.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/10/08/politics-of-limits
Inflation
Home affordability crisis hits 29th
month.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/10/new-home-affordability-crisis-enters.html
Recession
Q3 nowcast revised up again.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/10/gdpnow-up-to-3-2-saar
Geopolitics
The sanctions poison pill in Putin’s peace
offer.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/10/the-sanctions-poison-pill-in-putins-peace-offer.html
Bottom line
How Howard Marks
thinks about risk.
How
Howard Marks Thinks About Risk...And You Should Too - RIA
(realinvestmentadvice.com)
The impact of AI.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-impact-of-ai/?src=news
The optimistic
case.
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/let-us-pause-to-appreciate-the-remarkable
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Why
strokes are on the rise and what you can do to prevent them.
Strokes
are on the rise—and these are the reasons why (nationalgeographic.com)
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
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