The Morning Call---Why doesn't the ruling class understand simple math?

 

The Morning Call

 

10/1/24

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-pours-cold-water-rate-cut-euphoria-usa-sovereign-risk-ominously-surges-september

 

            Goldman raises gold price forecast.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/go-gold-goldman-sachs-raises-precious-metal-price-forecast-amid-secret-buyers

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

                          The September Chicago PMI came in at 46.6 versus forecasts of 46.2.

 

The September Dallas Fed manufacturing index was -9.0 versus expectations of -4.5.

 

                        International

 

The August Japanese unemployment rate was 2.5% versus estimates of 2.6%; the Q3 large manufacturers index was 13, in line; the Q3 large nonmanufacturers index was 34 versus 32.

 

The September Japanese manufacturing PMI was 49.7 versus predictions of 49.6; the September German manufacturing PMI was 40.6 versus 40.3; the September EU manufacturing PMI was 45.0 versus 44.8; the September UK manufacturing PMI was 51.5, in line.

 

The September EU flash CPI was 1.8% versus consensus of 1.9%.

 

                        Other

 

                          US port strikes begin.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/it-begins-us-port-strikes-erupt-first-shutdown-50-years-sparks-fears-supply-chain-crisis

 

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The latest comments from Chairman Powell.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/09/fed-chair-powell-economic-outlook.html

 

              But a word of caution from Mohamed El Erian.

              https://www.ft.com/content/10378b46-b6b0-43b8-9323-820c0cc13445

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Why doesn’t the ruling class understand simple math?

              https://nalert.blogspot.com/2024/09/between-1974-and-2023-tax-revenue.html

 

            Recession

 

              Update on big four recession indicators.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/09/27/the-big-four-recession-indicators

 

              Recent data points to solid economic growth in Q3.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/recent-data-still-point-to-solid-us-growth-for-q3/

 

            Geopolitics

 

              The West’s colossal failure.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09/richard-wolff-and-michael-hudson-wests-colossal-failure-peace-summit-in-switzerland-us-decline-rise-of-brics.html

 

    Bottom line

 

            The confidence dichotomy.

            Confidence Dichotomy - Consumers Vs. Investors - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            Be prepared.

            https://www.optimisticallie.com/p/hurricane-prep

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Paychex press release (NASDAQ:PAYX): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.16 beats by $0.02.

Revenue of $1.32B (+2.5% Y/Y) beats by $10M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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