The Morning Call---Increased bond volatility poses threat to stocks

 

The Morning Call

 

10/8/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/crude-jumps-bonds-stocks-dump-amid-weather-war-app-store-worries

 

            Are the techincals telling us anything?

            Technical Analysis - 3 Bullish And Bearish Takes - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            Increased bond volatility poses threat to stocks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/surging-move-poses-new-threat-spx

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The September small business optimism index was reported at 91.5 versus estimates of 91.7.

 

                        International

 

August Japanese YoY average cash earnings rose 3.0% versus expectations of up 3.1%; August household spending was up 2.0% versus +0.5%.

 

August German industrial production was up 2.0% versus consensus of +0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Last Friday’s nonfarm payroll number was nothing special.

                          https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/10/this-wasnt-monster-employment-number.html

 

                          However, some think that it means the risk of inflation is going up.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-06/bond-traders-buckle-up-for-no-landing-after-jobs-surprise?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true

 

                          State of the macro economy.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/10/state-of-the-macro-economy-10-6-2024-19-indicators-and-4-nowcasts

 

                          Update on household wealth.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/10/will-household-wealth-be-a-tailwind-to-consumption-in-2024q3

 

                          The Oscar for best leading economic indicator.

                          The Oscar For The Best Leading Economic Indicator (yardeniquicktakes.com)

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Asymmetric policymaking.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/asymmetric-policymaking/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The lack of fiscal discipline from both parties.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/us/politics/trump-economic-plans-debt-costs.html#

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump’s tariffs would take us back to the 1930’s.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/4916062-trump-harris-economic-plan/

 

              Economic warfare.

  https://libertarianinstitute.org/articles/sheldon/tgif-trump-trade-warmonger/?fbclid=IwY2xjawFu079leHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHQB4HNRtdQyQpxYFxJSNqWCY81-iquI1t_6NOc4GxKM7jNT7lwq8Ac2aug_aem_niozFkAEyQTVesKtiS5QbQ

 

                        Civil Strife

 

              The free speech crisis.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/10/07/free-speech-crisis

 

    Bottom line

 

            Who benefits from a Trump/Harris election?

            Election Outcome Presents Opportunity For Investors - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/10/04/q-ratio-and-market-valuation-september-2024

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/10/04/buffett-valuation-indicator-september-2024

 

                The total return rollercoaster.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/10/04/the-total-return-roller-coaster

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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