The Morning Call--Latest nowcast points to strong Q3 growth but expect slowing in Q4

 

The Morning Call

 

10/24/24

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/traders-sell-everything-dollar-soars-3-month-highs

 

            Strong US economy and ‘Trump trade’ driving the dollar higher.

            https://www.ft.com/content/5f545c98-cfd2-432a-97b4-288d8f4cebb7

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 227,000 versus estimates of 242,000.

 

The September Chicago national activity index was -0.28 versus expectations of +0.2.

 

September existing home sales fell 1.0% versus forecasts of -1.6%; September building permits were down 3.1% versus -2.9%.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/23/demand-destruction-for-existing-homes-sales-in-2024-to-plunge-below-4-million-homes-lowest-since-1995-as-supply-spikes/

 

                        International

 

The Q4 UK business optimism index was reported at -2.4 versus projections of -3.0; the October industrial trends index was -27 versus -28.

 

                          The October EU flash consumer confidence index came in at 12.5, in line.

 

The October Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 49.0 versus consensus of 49.9; the October flash services PMI was 49.3 versus 52.7; the October flash composite PMI was 49.4 versus 51.8; the October German flash manufacturing PMI was 42.6 versus 40.8; the October flash services PMI was 51.4 versus 50.6; the October flash composite PMI was 48.4 versus 47.6; the October EU flash manufacturing PMI was 45.9 versus 45.2; the October flash services PMI was 51.2 versus 51.5; the October flash composite PMI was 49.7 versus 49.8; the October UK flash manufacturing PMI was 50.3 versus 51.4; the October flash services PMI was 51.8 versus 52.4; the October flash composite PMI was 51.7 versus 52.6.

 

                        Other

 

                          The enormous net worth of the US private sector.

                          https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-enormous-net-worth-of-us-private.html

 

Changes in the data gathering methods in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/10/why-so-glum-structural-break-in-michigan-sentiment

 

                          The latest Beige Book reflected sluggish economic growth.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ugly-dovish-beige-book-warns-manufacturing-decline-most-districts-greenlights-further-rate

 

                          Architecture billings declined in September.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/10/aia-architecture-billings-declined-in.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The state of the states (indebtedness).

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/waste-day-states-are-811-billion-debt

 

            Recession

 

              Latest nowcast points to strong Q3 growth but expect slowing in Q4.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/strong-us-growth-still-expected-for-next-weeks-q3-gdp-report/

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Zelensky offers step to negotiating table.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-first-time-offers-russia-realistic-step-negotiating-table

 

     Botto line

 

            The ‘widow-maker- ETF.

            https://www.ft.com/content/ac4a175a-bf52-4be7-acd7-e3fd83756485

 

            Rising dividends boost outlook for stock prices.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/10/rising-dividend-outlook-boosting-stock.html

 

            What to do.

            https://paulpodolsky.substack.com/p/limbo-land

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2024/10/quotation-of-the-day-4804.html

 

            Stock up for survival.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/stock-survival-essential-food-storage-tips-emergencies

 

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