The Morning Call--Fears of globa inflation reigniting

 

The Morning Call

 

10/23/24

 

The Market

         

   Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-hits-new-record-high-trump-trade-takes-crude-mega-caps-gain

 

            Buy signals and investing outcomes.

            Seasonality: Buy Signal And Investing Outcomes - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            Surging rates: the pressure is real.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/surging-rates-pressure-real

 

            Dollar overbought.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/king-dollar-overbought-still-control

 

            Insider selling soars to three year high.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-insider-selling-soars-3-year-high-china-buybacks-surge-record

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications dropped 6.7% while purchase applications were down 5.0%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

The October Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at -14 versus consensus of -18.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Mortgage rates explode higher.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/21/mortgage-rates-explode-to-6-82-10-year-treasury-yield-jumps-to-4-20-55-basis-points-since-monster-rate-cut/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              How the national debt will play out.

              https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/how-the-national-debt-will-play-out

 

            Inflation

 

              Fears of global inflation reigniting.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-inflation-reignition-sparks-bond-bull-panic

 

              Paul Tudor Jones: all roads lead to inflation.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-roads-lead-inflation-election-looms-paul-tudor-jones-goldman-place-their-bets

 

            Recession

 

              Not all indicators point to no recession.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/10/22/cb-leading-economic-index-continues-to-fall-in-september

 

              IMF says risks are building to the downside.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/risks-are-building-downside-imf-cuts-global-growth-forecast-warns-risks-record-100-trillion

 

            Tariffs

 

              Tariffs don’t save industries.

              https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/tariffs-dont-save-industries-markets-do/

 

     Bottom line

 

            Bonds slump globally.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-22/bonds-are-selling-off-everywhere-as-traders-trim-rate-cut-bets?srnd=homepage-americas

 

            Market confusion.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-22/fed-cuts-helter-skelter-in-bond-markets-as-doubts-harden?srnd=homepage-americas

 

            Have bond prices seen their high?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/has-the-bond-market-rally-peaked/

 

            Citi cites risk of a 10% pullback.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-22/citi-says-us-equity-exposure-hits-levels-that-preceded-10-slide?srnd=homepage-americas

 

Ed Yardini’s response to Goldman’s forecast of a 3% stock market annual return over the next ten years (see yesterday’s Morning Call for that link).

Lost Decade Ahead For Stocks With Only 3% Annual Returns? (yardeniquicktakes.com)

 

            The front cover curse.

            The Front Cover Curse

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Canadian National Railway press release (NYSE:CNI): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of C$1.72 beats by C$0.02.

Revenue of C$4.11B (+3.0% Y/Y) beats by C$30M.

 

McDonald’s quarter pounder linked to E. coli.

McDonald's share price plummets on Quarter Pounder link to E.coli (NYSE:MCD) | Seeking Alpha

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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