The Morning Call---What the confusing Markets seem to be discounting

 

The Morning Call

 

10/31/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-hits-another-record-high-goldilocks-data

 

            Three bull trap charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-bull-trap-charts-we-are-watching

 

            Seasonality says melt up.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/seasonality-says-melt

 

            October ’23 to October ’24---one for the history books.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/easy-street-goldman-notes-sp-just-completed-one-its-greatest-risk-adjusted-annual-returns

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 216,000 versus predictions of 230,000.

                         

                          September pending home sales rose 7.4% versus estimates of +1.1%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/10/nar-pending-home-sales-increase-74-in.html

 

September personal income was up 0.3%, in line; September personal spending was up 0.5% versus +0.4%.

 

The September PCE price indicator was up 0.2%, in line; the September core PCE price indicator was up 0.3%, also in line.

                                  https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-hotter-expected-september

 

                        International

 

September Japanese preliminary industrial production was up 1.4% versus projections of 1.0%; September retail sales fell 2.8% versus -5.0%; September YoY housing starts were down 0.6% versus -4.1%; September YoY construction spending was down 21.3% versus +10.0%.

 

September German retail sales grew 1.2% versus forecasts of -0.5%;   October German CPI was up 0.4% versus up 0.2%.

 

The September EU unemployment rate was 6.3% versus expectations of 6.4%; the October flash CPI was +0.3% versus +0.1%.

 

The October Chinese manufacturing PMI was 50.1 versus consensus of 50.0; the October nonmanufacturing PMI was 50.2 versus 50.4; the October composite PMI was 50.8 versus 50.6.

 

                        Other

 

                          A deep dive into the employment numbers.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/29/hiring-jumps-for-3rd-month-workers-cling-to-jobs-layoffs-discharges-jump-but-remain-low-job-openings-fall/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The UK’s new budget wet dream.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/uk-gilt-yields-soar-after-reeves-reveals-budget-market-braces-inflationary-debt-surge

 

            Recession

 

              Eurozone expands faster than expected.

              https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/france-economy-picks-up-pace-as-olympics-spurs-growth-a093f7b6?mod=economy_lead_story

 

            Tariffs

 

              A review of the post-Civil War tariff regime.

              https://cafehayek.com/2024/10/more-on-tariffs-and-19th-century-american-industrialization.html

 

    Bottom line

 

            What the Markets seem to be discounting.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/it-beginning-look-debt-emergency

 

            Goldman hikes gold price forecast.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/goldman-hikes-its-gold-price-forecast-five-fold-increase-central-bank-demand

 

            Gold rises on ‘fear of missing out’.

            https://www.ft.com/content/dd0e24a4-b694-40ca-881e-d9423f2a8541

 

            Credit spreads are narrow. What does that mean?

            https://entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-the-week-credit-spreads

 

            On the other hand, long rates are rising on fears of fiscal sustainability.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/us-fiscal-outlook-starting-to-play-a-role-for-long-term-interest-rates/

 

            Or are they?

            https://sherwood.news/markets/bond-market-interest-rates-donald-trump-potential-impacts/?

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

• Altria press release (NYSE:MO): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.38 beats by $0.03.
• Revenue of $5.34B (+1.1% Y/Y) beats by $10M.

 

• C.H. Robinson Worldwide press release (NASDAQ:CHRW): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.28 beats by $0.13.
• Revenue of $4.64B (+6.9% Y/Y) beats by $100M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        The first sack of Rome.

            The first sack of Rome wasn't when you think it was

 

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