The Morning Call---Has risk-on run out of road?

 

The Morning Call

 

7/9/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-sluggish-post-holiday-hangover-black-gold-bitcoin-bullion-battered

 

            The most bullish thing that could happen.

            https://allstarcharts.com/the-most-bullish-thing-that-can-happen/

 

            Goldman’s funds flow guru turns tactically bearish.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/i-am-correction-watch-goldmans-fund-flow-guru-turns-tactically-bearish

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          May consumer credit grew $11.4 billion versus consensus of $10.0 billion.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-card-debt-unexpectedly-surges-card-apr-hits-new-all-time-high

 

The June small business optimism index came in at 91.5 versus projections of 89.5.

 

                        International

 

June Japanese YoY machine tool orders were up 9.7% versus forecasts of +2.3%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on mortgage delinquencies.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/fannie-and-freddie-single-family.html

 

                          Lumber prices down 20% YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/update-lumber-prices-down-20-yoy.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Update on the Fed balance sheet.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/07/05/fed-balance-sheet-qt-34-billion-in-june-1-74-trillion-from-peak-to-7-22-trillion-lowest-since-november-2020/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Representative democracy versus the priesthood of experts.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/07/08/meditations-independence-john-mauldin

 

              Crushing debts await Europe’s new leaders.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/crushing-debts-await-europes-new-leaders-c2b31138?mod=economy_lead_story

 

            Recession

 

              Jobs report revisions.

              https://issuesinsights.com/2024/07/06/how-did-250000-jobs-suddenly-vanish-this-year/

 

              How long until the next recession?

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/number-of-months-from-last-fed-hike-to-start-of-recession/

 

             The numbers that you don’t see.

              https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2024/07/the-bezzle-and-markets-risks-could-be.html

 

              Deepening global debt distress.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07/us-fed-induced-world-stagnation-deepens-debt-distress.html

 

              Recession Alert weekly leading economic index.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/08/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

              Big four recession indicators.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/05/the-big-four-recession-indicators

 

    Bottom line

 

            Has risk-on run out of road?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/has-risk-on-run-out-of-road/

 

            Earnings bar lowered as Q2 season begins.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/07/08/earnings-bar-lowered-q2-reports-begin-lance-roberts

 

            Hyper AI hype.

            https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-hype-hyper-edward-yardeni-lu6he/

 

            Remember, it is a market of stocks.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/07/how-developing-traders-are-most-likely.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            How Lee lost Gettysburg.

            Gettysburg was no ordinary battle. These maps reveal how Lee lost the fight. (nationalgeographic.com)

 

            How the solar system led planet hunters astray.

            https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/solar-system-planet-hunters-astray/

 

 

 

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