The Morning Call
7/25/24
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Note: the S&P
closed below the lower boundary of its very short uptrend; if it remains there
through the close today, that trend will be negated. It also finished right on
its 50 DMA. Follow through.
The gold breakout
failed but…………
https://allstarcharts.com/gold-one-good-trend-pays-for-em-all/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 235,000
versus consensus of 238,000.
June durable goods
orders fell 6.6% versus predictions of +0.3%; ex transportation, they were up
0.5% versus up 0.2%.
June new home sales
fell 0.6% versus estimates of an increase of 3.4%; June building permits were
up 3.9% versus +3.4%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/24/new-home-sales-fall-june-2024
More data on the
faltering housing market.
Q2 advanced GDP
growth was +2.3% versus expectations of +2.6%; the Q2 advanced price index was +2.9%
versus +2.7%; Q2 advanced QoQ sales growth was +2.0% versus +2.8%; Q2 advanced
QoQ real consumer spending was +2.3% versus +2.2%
The July flash manufacturing
PMI was 49.5 versus forecasts of 51.7; the flash services PMI was 56.0 versus
55.0; the flash composite PMI was 55.0 versus 54.7.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/services-soar-manufacturing-slumps-preliminary-july-pmis
International
The July German
business climate index came in at 87.0 versus projections of 88.9; the June
current conditions index was 87.1 versus 88.5.
The July UK
industrial trends orders index was -32 versus consensus of -19; the Q3 business
optimism index was -9 versus -15.
Other
June architecture billings declined.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/aia-architecture-billings-declined-in.html
Monetary
Policy
Bill Dudley changes his mind. This is getting
a lot of attention in the press.
Bank of Canada cuts rates for a second month
in a row.
Recession
Why would long and variable lags be asymmetric?
https://www.apolloacademy.com/why-would-long-and-variable-lags-be-asymmetric/
The ‘climbing limo’ Q2 GDP forecast.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/07/climbing-limo-gdp-forecast-for-2024-q2.html
Some formerly
reliable recession indicators aren’t working.
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/23/recession-indicators-signals-not-working-employment-trends
But that has
always been the case.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-case-against-lone-recession-indicators-is-stronger-than-ever/
For the optimists.
https://www.ft.com/content/6687578b-40b1-4026-b9bc-2c5ee4ef81a8
Tariffs
As you know, I am
no advocate of tariffs; but this study suggesting that tariffs on the
semiconductor industry have negatively impacted the growth of the labor force
serving that industry is a bit short of logic. What is bothersome about this
article is that it offers no cause and effect analysis. In other words, it assumes
that higher tariffs cause lower unemployment without offering any proof of the
causal relationship. That doesn’t mean that we don’t have a shortage of talent
in the semiconductor industry; but this is hardly a convincing argument that
high tariffs are the cause. Indeed, it seems far more logical to me that we
have shortage of skilled engineers in multiple fields because of the woke/social
justice orientation of our education system which churns out thousands of unneeded
social engineers that wind up waiting tables and living with their parents
because our capitalist economy has only a marginal need for them.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
BlackRock
(NYSE:BLK) declares $5.10/share quarterly
dividend, in line with previous.
AbbVie press release (NYSE:ABBV): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of
$2.65 misses by $0.01.
Revenue
of $14.46B (+4.3% Y/Y) beats by $430M.
What
I am reading today
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