The Morning Call--Is a steeper yield curve coming?

 

 

The Morning Call

 

7/26/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mega-cap-meltdown-continues-good-news-sends-rate-cut-hopes-reeling

 

Note: with the S&P closing lower (1) its very short term uptrend has been voided and (2) its 50 DMA is now being challenged; if the index remains there through the close today, the 50 DMA will revert from support to resistance.

 

            NASDAQ on the edge.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/make-or-break

 

            Surging tech fear.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/surging-tech-fear

           

            Little cash on other sidelines.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/little-cash-sidelines-suggests-firepower-sustain-equity-rally-diminishes

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

June personal income was up 0.2% versus expectations of +0.4%; June personal spending was up 0.3%, in line.

 

The June PCE price index was up 0.3%, in line; the June YoY core PCE price index was up 2.6% versus +2.5%.

 

The July Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at -12 versus forecasts of -8.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/25/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-activity-july-2024

 

                        International

 

The May Japanese leading economic indicators were 111.2 versus predictions of 111.1; the July YoY CPI was up 2.2%, in line; ex food and energy, it was +2.2% versus +2.3%; YoY core CPI was +1.5% versus +1.6%.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

             China unexpectedly cuts one year policy rate.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-25/china-s-central-bank-cuts-one-year-policy-loan-rate?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Recession

 

              Inside yesterday’s GDP data.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/07/25/economy-re-accelerates-in-q2-our-drunken-sailors-splurge-on-durable-goods-private-investment-jumps-federal-gov-undoes-blip/

 

                        The Financial System

 

              The commercial real estate problem is not going away.

                             https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-failures-are-almost-certain-follow-cre-crisis-has-gone-nowhere

                         

Geopolitics

 

  The will of the people.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hell-will-people

 

    Bottom line

 

            Is the latest surge in volatility noise or a signal?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-latest-surge-in-stock-market-volatility-noise-or-signal/

 

            Buy some gold and get on with your life.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/buy-some-and-get-on-with-your-life1?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP526&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

                       

            What drives the price of gold?

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/07/the-glitter-of-gold-and-what-drives-its.html

 

Death of the dollar?

            https://disciplinefunds.com/2024/07/23/the-death-of-the-dollar-in-perspective/

 

Is a steeper yield curve coming? Remember that historically, equity markets tend to decline following the uninversion of the yield curve.

https://www.apolloacademy.com/steeper-curve-coming/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

T. Rowe Price press release (NASDAQ:TROW): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.26 misses by $0.02.

Revenue of $1.73B (+7.5% Y/Y) misses by $50M.

 

McDonald (NYSE:MCD) declares $1.67/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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