The Morning Call---The mess our rulng class has created

 

The Morning Call

 

7/2/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasuries-trounced-trump-triumph-looms-crude-crypto-soar

 

            The S&P is looking more vulnerable.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/sp-500-looking-more-vulnerable/

 

            A spike in volatility is inevitable once correlations align.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/spike-volatility-inevitable-once-correlations-align-and-few-are-prepared-it

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

                          May construction spending fell 0.1% versus consensus of +0.1%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/construction-spending-decreased-01-in.html

 

                          The June manufacturing PMI was 51.6 versus predictions of 51.7.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/01/sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-june-2024

 

                          The June ISM manufacturing index was 49.3 versus estimates of 50.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/01/ism-manufacturing-index-contracts-june-2024

 

                        International

 

The May EU unemployment rate was 6.4%, in line; the June flash CPI was +0.2%, also in line.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Central bank credibility and institutional resilience.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/06/guest-contribution-central-bank-credibility-and-institutional-resilience

 

              Why the Fed must change the way it targets inflation.

              https://www.ft.com/content/c9cba47f-5902-4c2e-93de-b1bd113a91db

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The mess our ruling class has created.

              https://nypost.com/2024/06/29/business/wall-street-is-going-toward-a-straight-free-fall-no-one-knows-whats-going-to-happen-with-the-market/

 

The BIS warns of rising government debt but then (as usual) says everything will be OK.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/rising-government-debt-threatens-financial-stability-inflation-bis-says-e0efaf53?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

            The Supreme Court

 

              More on the ‘Chevron’ deference decision.

              https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2024-6-28-the-end-of-chevron-deference

 

    Bottom line

 

            Small caps on the launching pad.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2024/06/falling-inflation-rising-political-tensions-priming-small-caps-to-soar/

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/01/p-e10-and-market-valuation-june-2024

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/01/q-ratio-and-market-valuation-june-2024

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/01/regression-to-trend-s-p-composite-163-above-trend-in-june

 

            What is next for bitcoin?

            https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-investors-begin-ponder-next-143000692.html

 

            We remain in the midst of a bond bear market.

            https://x.com/bespokeinvest/status/1807825378842480882

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        The Swedish secret to a perfectly balanced vacation.

            https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/tips/lagom-travel-balance-rest-adventure/

 

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