The Morning Call---Stock fragility is the highest on record

 

The Morning Call

 

7/11/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mega-cap-tech-melt-continues-bidens-nomination-odds-plunge

           

            Stock fragility is the highest on record.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-fragility-highest-record

 

            Bonds and Fed expectations.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/10s-and-fed-expectations/

 

            Is the small cap index telling us something?

            https://allstarcharts.com/no-its-not-just-large-cap-tech/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

June CPI fell 0.1% versus estimates of +0.1%; core CPI was up 0.1% versus +0.2%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/consumer-prices-deflated-most-covid-lockdowns-june-core-prices-continue-rise

 

June initial jobless claims totaled 222,000 versus projections of 236,000.

 

                        International

 

May Japanese machinery orders declined 3.2% versus consensus of +0.8%.

 

The May UK trade balance was -L4.9 billion versus expectations of -L4.3 billion.

 

June German CPI was +0.1%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          US trade with the world slowly recovers while China trade declines.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/07/us-trade-with-world-slowly-recovers-as.html

 

                          Rail carloads down in June.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/aar-rail-carloads-down-yoy-in-june-due.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

In keeping with the Fed’s long tradition of its ‘on the one hand, on the other hand’ narrative, Powell’s congressional testimony, as I noted yesterday, is now dovish.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/10/treasury-yields-retreat-fed-warns-on-keeping-rates-high-for-too-long.html

 

Of course, a big reason that the Fed will ease soon is that the government needs it to finance its deficits.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fiscal-dominance-here

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Why can’t the politicians ever learn?

              https://www.city-journal.org/article/inflation-lessons-unlearned

 

            Recession

 

              Some pessimism from my favorite optimist.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/07/with-little-luck-well-survive-bidens.html

 

              More on the troubled commercial real estate market.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-10/us-commercial-property-crash-is-set-to-deepen-the-pain-elsewhere?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          US corporate bankruptcies at highest level since 2020 (covid).

  https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/us-corporate-bankruptcies-in-june-reach-highest-monthly-level-since-early-2020-82297569?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

 

 

                        Geopolitics

 

              Poland preparing for full scale war with Russia.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/poland-preparing-military-full-scale-conflict-army-chief-says

 

 

     Bottom line

 

            Evolution in the marketplace.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/07/10/cantillon-marries-red-queen-smead-capital

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) declared $0.98/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            A critique of US/NATO foreign policy.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07/michael-hudson-russia-and-china-crush-natos-plan-as-ukraine-falls-apart.html

 

 

 

 

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