The Morning Call--Inflation, going but not gone

 

The Morning Call

 

7/23/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/biden-ouster-sparks-some-trump-trade-unwind-big-tech-bond-yields-bounce

 

            Last week’s pin action in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/anatomy-very-ordinary-violent-pullback

 

            Markets reassess ‘Trump trade’ after Biden withdraws.

            https://www.ft.com/content/a2f1050b-4f75-4b3e-b5a0-f0055312c10f

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Month to date retail chain store sales growth improved slightly over the prior week.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Trumponomics can’t survive a weak dollar.

                          https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2024/07/21/donald-trump-can-survive-many-policy-errors-but-not-a-weak-dollar/

 

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              China surprises with a rate cut.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-22/pboc-cuts-seven-day-reverse-repo-rate-to-1-7-to-support-economy?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Inflation

 

              Going but not gone.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/07/22/going-not-gone-john-mauldin

 

            Recession

           

              Where is the slowdown?

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/where-is-the-slowdown/

 

              Alternative business cycle indicators.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/07/alternative-business-cycle-indicators-2

 

              Can one have a recession when real household wealth is increasing?

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/07/can-one-have-a-recession-start-when-real-household-wealth-is-rising

 

              The mortgage delinquency rate increased in June.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/ice-mortgage-delinquency-rate-increased.html

 

 

     Bottom line

 

            The folly of certainty.

            https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-folly-of-certainty

           

                Large cap growth is still leading the Market. But will it last?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/large-cap-growth-is-still-leading-the-market-will-it-last/

 

            Goldman expects gold to surge.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/goldman-sees-gold-surging-relentless-chinese-demand

 

    Investor Alert

 

In my quarterly review of the financial conditions of our holdings, 3M failed to meet the minimum quality criteria for inclusion in our Universe. Accordingly, the Dividend Growth and High Yield Portfolios will Sell their positions on the Market open.

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Sherwin Williams press release (NYSE:SHW): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.70 beats by $0.21.

Revenue of $6.27B (+0.5% Y/Y) misses by $60M.

 

UPS press release (NYSE:UPS): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.79 misses by $0.20.

Revenue of $21.8B (-1.4% Y/Y) misses by $440M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            NASA rover makes mind blowing discovery on Mars.

            https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13656211/nasa-curiosity-rover-discovery-mars.html

 

 

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