The Morning Call---Is it a recession yet?

 

The Morning Call

 

7/10/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-bid-crude-skids-stocks-bonds-sluggish-cpi-looms

 

            Overbought extremes.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bullish-longs-and-some-overbought-extremes

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 0.2% while purchase applications were up 0.1%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

                        International

 

                          June Japanese PPI was up 0.2% versus forecasts of +0.4%.

 

June Chinese CPI was down 0.2% versus predictions of -0.1%; June vehicle sales were down 2.7% versus +2.3%.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The Fed is blind to the economic risks.

              https://www.aei.org/economics/the-fed-is-blind-to-economic-risks/

 

Powell began his semiannual Humphrey Hawkins testimony before congress with an ever so slight dovish tone.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/fed-chair-powell-semiannual-monetary.html

 

            Recession

 

              Is it a recession yet?

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-fed-gets-its-wish/?src=news

 

              Part 2.

              https://www.aier.org/article/june-u-3-jobless-rate-triggers-sahm-rule-recession-ahead/

 

              Flirting with recession.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-us-economy-flirting-with-recession/

 

              The housing slump deepened this spring.

              https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-housing-slump-deepened-spring-leave-home-shoppers-111740149

 

              The misallocation of capital brought on by QE is having its affect.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/bidenomics-business-bankruptcies-jump-34-first-half-2024

 

              Cracks in the housing market.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/housing-market-cracks-record-number-listed-homes-have-price-drops

 

     Bottom line

 

A sizzling earnings season looms. This in contrast to a number of other analysts predicting a slowdown in profit growth.

https://sherwood.news/markets/quarterly-earnings-best-season-in-years/

 

            The superior returns of cyclical stocks.

            https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/the-superior-returns-of-cyclical

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Cummins (NYSE:CMI) declares $1.82/share quarterly dividend, 8.3% increase from prior dividend of $1.68.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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